最近加密货币价格的飙升引起了全球关注，引发了人们对这背后因素和潜在影响的讨论。其中，比特币的价格从一年前的2万7900美元（约13万2494令吉）上涨到6万9000美元（32万7639令吉），涨幅就高达147%。
加密货币牛市背后可能有多种原因：
1.美国证券交易委员会批准现货比特币交易所挂牌基金（ETF）
ETF是一种追踪标的资产表现之投资基金。通常是股票、一篮子货币、黄金等贵金属。如今，比特币也被纳入其中。基本上，这使投资者能够在不直接拥有相关资产情况下获得其价值，这为机构和散户投资者参与加密货币市场提供了更便捷的方式：
i) 机构投资者日渐接受加密货币作为合法资产类别。他们在多元化前景和潜在高回报的推动下投入加密货币市场，为加密生态系统注入了大量资本和信誉。
ii) 散户兴趣不断增长：除了机构投资者参与之外，散户投资者对加密货币的参与也在激增。更易使用的用户友好加密货币平台，以及对数码资产的认识不断增强，也促成了这一波趋势。
2、宏观经济因素：
在全球经济充满不确定性，如通货膨胀压力和非常规货币政策等情况下，加密货币被视为另类资产保值。尤其是比特币，作为对冲货币贬值和通货膨胀的工具而受到关注。
3、技术创新：
区块链技术的不断进步为加密货币带来了投机交易以外的新用途和可能性。专注于去中心化金融（DeFi）、不可替代代币（NFT）和区块链互通性的方案正在推动这些技术的创新和使用。 更重要的是，比特币铭文提供了一种在比特币区块链上书写数码工件的新方式，其中可包括图像、影片、文字、音讯等。这将比特币转变为更强大的区块链，而不仅仅是将其用作数码货币。
4.比特币挖矿奖励减半：
比特币减半是指比特币挖矿的奖励减少一半，每四年发生一次。减半政策一开始就被写入比特币的挖矿演算法中，以透过维持稀缺性来抵消通货膨胀。从历史上看，比特币供应量减半会推动其价格上涨和市场牛市。到2024年4月第四次减半事件前，“矿工”的区块奖励将从6.25比特币减少一半至3.125比特币。
接下来让我们来看看对马来西亚经济的潜在影响
1. 提高使用率：
马来西亚对加密货币的兴趣日益浓厚，投资者和交易平台的数量不断增加。迄今为止，证券委员会已批准/有条件批准6家数码资产交易平台。数码资产的可及性使投资机会民主化，尤其是在年轻人中。此外，随著创建不可替代代币NFT和边玩边赚具有代币经济作用的区块链游戏GameFi，也使区块链有更多用途。
2. 监管更新：
令人兴奋的是看到马来西亚证券委员会管辖范围内有更多受监管的加密货币相关公司，这表明政策制定与技术进步保持一致。例如，有加密货币首次交易所发行营运商、数码资产托管业者以及像Halogen Capital这样的数码资产基金管理公司。
3. 经济机会：
加密货币有望促进马来西亚的金融包容性和推动经济成长。区块链技术可简化流程、降低交易成本并扩大金融服务的覆盖范围，特别是现有业者服务不到的人群。例如，马来西亚国家公共区块链基础设施Zetrix一直在与中国政府合作创建不同的跨境用途，例如数码证书、清关平台和贸易融资平台，供区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）国家使用。
最近加密货币的多头市场既引发了乐观情绪，也带来了担忧情绪，反映出市场动态、技术创新和监管考量之间的复杂相互作用。在马来西亚，人们对加密货币日益浓厚的兴趣既带来了机遇，也带来了挑战，凸显了我们需要平衡监管方案和业者积极参与的必要性。虽然加密货币具有变革潜力，但其未来发展轨迹将取决于克服监管障碍、推动技术创新以及在相关利益者之间建立起信任。最终，加密货币是否塑造金融的未来将取决于未来几年如何应对这些挑战和抓住机会。
陈奕强《解读加密货币牛市及其对大马影响》原文：Deciphering the Cryptocurrency Bull Market and its impact on Malaysia
The recent surge in cryptocurrency prices has captured global attention, raising questions about the underlying drivers and potential implications. Bitcoin’s price has increased from 27.9k USD to 69k USD, which is a whopping 147% increment compared to just 1 year ago.
There could be multiple reasons behind the cryptocurrency bull market:
1. Approval of Bitcoin Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) by the US Securities and Exchange Commission:
An ETF is an investment fund that tracks the performance of an underlying asset. Conventionally it is stocks, a basket of currencies, precious metals like gold. Today, Bitcoin is being included. Basically it enables investors to get exposure to the value of the underlying asset without directly owning it, which provides a more convenient way for both institutional and retail investors to participate in the cryptocurrency market:
i) Institutional investors have increasingly embraced cryptocurrencies as a legitimate asset class. Their entry into the market, driven by the prospect of diversification and potential high returns, has infused substantial capital and credibility into the crypto ecosystem.
ii) Growing Retail Interest:: Alongside institutional adoption, there has been a surge in retail investor participation in cryptocurrencies. Increased accessibility through user-friendly platforms and growing awareness of digital assets have contributed to this trend.
2. Macro-Economic Factors:
Amidst global economic uncertainties, including inflationary pressures and unconventional monetary policies, cryptocurrencies are viewed as alternative stores of value. Bitcoin, in particular, has garnered attention as a hedge against currency devaluation and inflation.
3. Technological Innovation:
Ongoing advancements in blockchain technology have unlocked new use cases and possibilities for cryptocurrencies beyond speculative trading. Projects focusing on decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), and blockchain interoperability are driving innovation and adoption. More importantly, Bitcoin inscriptions enable a new way of writing digital artifacts on the Bitcoin Blockchain, which can include images, videos, texts, audio and more. This has transformed Bitcoin into a more powerful Blockchain than just using it as a digital currency.
4. Bitcoin halving:
Bitcoin halving is when the reward for Bitcoin mining is cut in half and takes place every four years. The halving policy was written into Bitcoin's mining algorithm to counteract inflation by maintaining scarcity. Historically, Bitcoin's supply halving has been associated with an uptick in its price, preceding significant bull runs in the market. With approximately 4,450 blocks remaining until the fourth halving event, scheduled for April 2024, miner block rewards will be reduced by 50% from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Next, let us look into the potential impact to the Malaysian economy
1. Increased Adoption:
Malaysia has witnessed a growing interest in cryptocurrencies, with a burgeoning number of investors and trading platforms. Till date, Securities Commissions has given approval/conditional approval for 6 digital asset exchanges. The accessibility of digital assets has democratized investment opportunities, particularly among the younger demographic. Also, there are more use cases for Blockchain with the creation of NFT and GameFi with play-to-earn kind of tokonemics.
2. Regulatory Updates:
It is exciting to see there are more regulated cryptocurrencies related companies under the purview of Securities Commissions in Malaysia, it shows that the policy makings are aligned with technological advancements. For instance, there are Initial Exchange Offering operators, Digital Asset Custodian operators and digital asset fund managers like Halogen Capital.
3. Economic Opportunities:
Cryptocurrencies hold the promise of fostering financial inclusion and driving economic growth in Malaysia. Blockchain technology has the potential to streamline processes, reduce transaction costs, and expand access to financial services, particularly for underserved populations. For instance, Zetrix, National Public Blockchain Infrastructure for Malaysia has been creating different cross border use cases, such as Digital ID, custom clearance platform and trade financing platform in collaboration with China government for the use of Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries.
The recent bull market in cryptocurrencies has sparked optimism and apprehension in equal measure, reflecting the complex interplay of market dynamics, technological innovation, and regulatory considerations. In Malaysia, the burgeoning interest in cryptocurrencies presents both opportunities and challenges, underscoring the need for balanced regulatory approaches and proactive industry engagement. While cryptocurrencies hold transformative potential, their future trajectory will depend on navigating regulatory hurdles, advancing technological innovation, and building trust among stakeholders. Whether cryptocurrencies ultimately shape the future of finance will hinge on how these challenges are addressed and opportunities seized in the years to come.
