6州选民将在明天投票，很明显，许多选民虽然关心经济和民生问题，但最终左右他们抉择的，是他们对种族和宗教的关注。
宗教和种族将决定两个主要竞争联盟——国盟或希盟——何者是赢家，一些分析也认为这可成为下届全国大选的重要指标和标志。
对于非马来选民来说，投那一方已是不言而喻的。由土团党和伊党主导的国盟，是一个以强调马来人和伊斯兰主导的联盟。国盟的宣言立场，是明摆著的。事实上，土团党和伊党领导人不断吹捧和突出马来人和穆斯林特征，并在选举期间公然展示反非马来人和非穆斯林的言行。
尽管民政党和沙巴进步党也是国盟的一份子，但他们实际上只是遮盖国盟赤裸裸的宗教和种族的政治与社会经济议程的两片遮羞布。现在，国盟更通过了马哈迪的《马来人宣言》12项声明，进一步强化其议程，即保护马来人的利益，团结他们并恢复马来人的政治权力。
许多人认为民政党在国盟旗帜下参与槟州选举，不仅是对其创党精神的多元种族和自由传统的背叛。这也可视为拉抬伊党的极端立场以及把伊党进一步打造为马来西亚主导政党。
显然，民政党主席刘华才寄望于“绿色浪潮”，可让其在马来人居多数的选区──峇六拜胜出。其他得到土团党支持的民政党候选人也可能会表现不错。但如果民政党的候选人无法取信于槟城的华人和印裔选民，民政党将仅是国盟雄心勃勃大计下的门面粉饰，这可能是民政党终结的开始。这将是一个遗憾，因为这国家政治需要第三种力量——不仅在槟城，而且在其他州属亦如此。
选举困境
绝大多数非马来选民的投票决定，似乎主要取决于他们对国盟会胜利和现任希盟政府垮台的恐惧。首相安华在槟城预科学院与学生对话时，被一名学生问及，他是否会废除高等教育固打制的问题，他的回答简洁但有些残酷：
“如果安华说废除固打制，我们将会输掉所有选举，而（这国家如果由）伊党和土团党一旦上台，你们遭受更多苦难。明白吗。”
对于马来选民来说，尽管他们比非马来选民面临更大的民生压力，但影响他们抉择的主要是，在哈迪和安华这两者提出的种族和宗教议程中，何者更能吸引他们。巫统如今已起不了关键作用。这个曾被视为保护马来人利益和控制著马来选票的主导政党，在上届大选时已式微，并且似乎还没有恢复到昔日光景。
马来人居多选区的选民投票倾向，可能会确认了巫统是一支正在衰落的力量，即使该党可能帮助希盟，主要是公正党候选人，战胜国盟的挑战者。对于年长一辈的马来人来说，选票从巫统转移到公正党现象可能会更加明显，如果这确实发生，将可让希盟在竞争激烈的雪兰莪州和森美兰州继续掌权。这可能给巫统现任领导人带来希望，让他们力挽狂澜。
就如前卫生部长凯里所言：6州选举也将决定扎希领导的巫统对安华来说是资产还是包袱。如上所述，安华希望利用巫统作为合作伙伴来赢得他在去年大选期间无法获得的马来选票。毕竟，巫统仍然被视为统领马来政治舞台数十年的老牌政党。
在雪森两州，慕尤丁领导的土团党尽管扮演著主导角色，也比伊党上阵更多议席，却相对低调，部分原因是慕尤丁和土团党领袖如旺赛夫和亚当拉德兰受到贪腐指控。这种低姿态形式也表明，宗教与种族身份的融合，对国盟在第15届全国大选的胜出发挥了重要作用，甚至出人意料地得到了年轻马来选民的支持。因此，国盟依然期望靠宗教和社交媒体驱动的策略，可以在雪州和森州制胜。
对外部观察者来说，即将到来的州选举，对马来选民而言，似乎攸关伊斯兰教更大权力，及其对经济、文化、教育、社会实践的相应影响，而这些都是他们希望看到和实现的，这不只是在马来社会，更希望进一步扩张到非马来人和非穆斯林社会。
最终，这会是哈迪式的保守、反自由、反动的伊斯兰观还是安华昌明大马下，强调可持续性、繁荣、尊重、创新和包容，以及保障非穆斯林权益的价值观胜出？
林德宜《哈迪伊斯兰观与安华昌明大马：谁会赢？》原文：Hadi’s Islam Vs Anwar’s Madani: Which Will Win?
As voters from some states return to the voting booth, whilst economic and bread and butter issues are in the minds of many voters, what may ultimately decide their choice are their concerns on race and religion.
These concerns will decide which of the two contending coalitions - PN or PH - will emerge the winner in what some analysts see as an important run up and marker leading to the outcome of the next GE.
For non-Malay voters, the choice appear self evident. The Bersatu and PAS dominated coalition is one with Malay and Islamic domination objectives in the forefront. Their concerns and priorities - though not explicitly spelt out in their manifesto - is one which the two parties do not try to hide. In fact both Berstau and PAS leaders regularly flout and tout their Malay and Muslim credentials - and associated anti non Malay and non Muslim antagonisms - loudly come election time.
Although Gerakan and Sabah Progressive Party are part of the Perikatan Nasional coalition they are really two fig leaves covering the naked political and socio-economic agenda of Perikatan which is based primarily on the two R’s of race and religion. This agenda is now further bolstered by PN’s adoption of Dr Mahathir’s 12 point document, Malay Proclamation, to protect the interests of Malay, to unite them and to restore the political power of Malays.
Gerakan’s participation in the state elections in Penang is regarded by many as not only a betrayal of its multiracial and liberal heritage. It is also seen as providing oxygen to PAS’s extreme position and the party’s ambition to become the leading political party of Malaysia.
Gerakan president, Dominic Lau, counting on the “green wave” may win in the Malay majority seat of Bagan Lepas. Other Gerakan candidates, with Bersatu’s support, may also do better than previously. But if the party’s candidates cannot convince Penang’s Chinese and Indian voters that they are more than just window dressing in the larger scheme of Perikatan’s ambitions, it could well make the beginning of the end for the party as any kind of force in Malaysia’s politics. That would be a pity as a Third Force in the nation’s politics is needed - in Penang and in the other states.
Non Malay and Malay Electoral Dilemmas
The electoral choice for the great majority of non Malay voters appears to be mainly conditioned by their fear of Perikatan victory and the downfall of the current Pakatan government. As succinctly if somewhat brutally expressed by Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently responding to a student from Kolej Matrikulasi Pulau Pinang who had asked if he would scrap the quota system in higher education:
“If Anwar Ibrahim says scrap the quota system, we will lose all elections in this country and you will suffer more (if the country is run) by PAS and Bersatu. Understand that. ”
For Malay voters, although more pressured by bread and butter issues than their non-Malay counterparts, the choice is largely between the two racial and religious agendas and appeal provided by Hadi and Anwar.
UMNO appears to be a non-factor. Its historical position as the dominant party protecting Malay interests and grip on Malay votes was considerably weakened during the last GE and has not recovered to any noticeable extent.
The votes from Malay majority constituencies voters are likely to confirm UMNO as a declining force even if the party may help Pakatan - mainly PKR candidiates - win against some of their PN challengers. Malay vote transferability from UMNO to PKR could be more pronounced for the Malay older generation. If this does take place it may result in Pakatan hanging on to power in the highly contested states of Selangor and Negri Sembilan. This may provide hope to UMNO’s current leaders of a recovery in the party’s decline and future prospects.
Khairy Jamaluddin：The state elections will determine if UMNO, led by Zahid, is an asset or a liability for Anwar. As explained above, Anwar wants to use UMNO as a partner to win Malay votes he was unable to get during the general election. Yet, UMNO continues to be seen as a shadow of the grand old party that dominated the Malay political ground for decades.
Muhyiddin’s Bersatu party, partly because of the corruption charges against him and his party colleague leaders, Wan Saiful and Adam Radlan, has largely kept a low profile even in the two southern states where it has more seats at stake and is in a dominant position ahead of PAS. This subdued electioneering profile is also a recognition that the fusion of religious with racial identity issues played a major role in the success of the party during GE15 - even unexpectedly with the young Malay voters. Hence the expectation that reliance on a religious and social media driven youth strategy could provide the winning edge for Perikatan in Selangor and Negri Sembilan.
To an outside observer, the coming state elections - for the Malay electorate - appears to have its greatest stake in the kind of Islam, and its consequential repercussions on economy, culture, education, social practice and everyday life that they want to see - and have - for themselves and the country’s non Malay and non Muslim communities.
Will it be Hadi’s brand of pure, conservative, anti-liberal and anti progressive Islam or Anwar’s Madani Islam with its principles of sustainability, prosperity, respect, innovation, trust and compassion;.and proclaimed guarantee to protect the rights and justice for non Muslims that will prevail?.
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