如果马哈迪活到100岁，我国将成为唯一由百岁老人任首相的国家。这是希盟一些成员在讨论备受争议的继承人计划时，得出的结论。他们也对这个国家的第四和第七任首相马哈迪将交棒给曾经视为继承人─后转变为敌人─再变回继承人的拿督斯里安华，充满怀疑。
虽然两人为了共同的目标，化敌为友──以一马公司丑闻在第14届大选中，挑战拿督斯里纳吉领导的国阵，但对于一些人来说，似乎很难忘记安华过去20年间面对著的性丑闻指控和为斗争而坐牢的岁月。
对于马哈迪言，既往不究与其性格是不符的，特别是当年，他坚持安华是有罪的，并用他作为专制领袖所拥有的资源和影响力，确保安华在政治上被摧毁。
增加马来人支持
但今天，93岁的马哈迪领导的内阁成员中，包括那些本人或其父亲曾被马哈迪监禁过的──如财政部长林冠英和通讯及多媒体部长哥宾星。当下的马来西亚政府和执政联盟证明，在政治上没有永久的朋友或永久的敌人。
基于这点，希盟的成员对马哈迪与巫统退党者关系日益密切感到不安。民主行动党已明确表明，其不能接受现任巫统议员加入希盟。
在退出巫统的17人中，有3人加入了马哈迪的土团党──其中最资深的应是前国际贸易和工业部长拿督斯里慕斯达法。
人们可以理解土团党为何拉拢巫统议员入党。尤其509大选后，巫统在下议院依然拥有最多的席位─54席，也证明了希盟在获取马来人支持上还有待加强。
希盟中以公正党议席最多，拥有47席（现为50）、行动党为42席、诚信党11席，而沙巴民兴党为8席（现为9）。土团党虽只有13席（现为16）但主导著内阁，同时别忘了，一些人也不满马哈迪组织内阁时，政党席位与官职分配不成比例。
对此，安华呼吁各方尊重希盟在第14届大选之前的协议，即如果希盟获胜，马哈迪将任首相。因此，安华说，尽管须与内阁成员和友党讨论，但马哈迪作为首相，也应有选择自己的内阁和制定政策的空间和自由。
随著制造了一场波德申补选，将安华重新送入国会下议院，为安华在两年内接替马哈迪首相位置的机制也启动。然而，对于那些仍然困扰在安华于1998年被革除副首相以及随后被监禁阴影者，他们会质疑马哈迪交棒给安华的诚意。因此，不时传出马哈迪会首选经济事务部长阿兹敏拉捧，加上如今巫统退党潮，使传言更盛。
“无论如何，马哈迪很快就会退下。他的妻子（敦西蒂哈斯玛）担心他的健康状况。”土团党内部人士说。“不要忘记，希盟在浮罗交怡宣布马哈迪是希盟首相人选时，她哭了。她担心年迈体弱的丈夫，她非常了解首相职务的压力。”
不过，胜利是灵丹妙药。自5月9日以来，马哈迪身体状况看似更旺盛。也许随著土团党在国会下议院人数的增加，其前景以及在政府中的影响力，更诱人了？
如果巫统的所有17名退党议员，全部加人土团党，土团党议员人数将增加至30人。然后，在羊群效应下，土团党成为下议院中最大党，并为希盟提供2/3多数优势，崛起为马来人权利的捍卫者，都只是时间上的问题。毕竟，土团党（Bersatu）的英译，如果不严格要求的话，也是可以简称为UMNO（巫统简称）。
诚信党也表明，能接受巫统议员的跳槽，以提高本身的力量。然而为何伊党的18名国会议员，又没跳槽到诚信党？
不接受有污点议员
必须指出的是，一些巫统退党者也直奔安华的大门。毕竟，能与未来国家接班人结盟也是精明的选择。然而，安华拒绝接受这些建议，他了解到如果允许巫统成员，特别是有污点的领袖加入希盟，他将在成为首相之前，就失去人民的信任。他重申，目前巫统议员退党的论述，是另一种旨在离间他与马哈迪的尝试。
对此，安华受作者询及时就说：“对巫统退党潮的雀跃，以及与马哈迪不合的传言，对希盟都是无益的。这些都会导致人们对希盟越来越失望，尤其是那些寄望我们能为他们带来更光明未来的年轻人。”
他补充说：“这就是一贯的政治，坦白说，人民已感厌倦。我们需把关注放在国家建设和履行人民的委托。吸引巫统或任何其他党派的成员不是也不应该成为我们的当务之急。”
讽刺的是，从巫统分裂的派系言论中，一方试图投向马哈迪，另一方则寻求加入安华这一边。无论是马哈迪或安华，不管是在国会走廊或家中会见这些巫统人时，都令有关传言火上加油。正如人们所言，在政治里认知胜于一切。
一位希盟领袖试图表达令人宽心的话：“此时，马哈迪正打造本身的历史地位。违反希盟的继承计划将玷污其政绩。马哈迪希望能在历史最高点上退位，并在历史舞台上被视为拯救马来西亚的英雄。”
马哈迪已表明土团党不会接受有污点的巫统成员，以回应人民和希盟内部的批评。这一立场也符合希盟成员党行动党的反跳槽立场。
基于民主的利益，不应有任何政党拥有2/3多数议席，不管是否通过拉拢议员跳槽获得。土团党不应变身为巫统2.0。那些跳槽者是否因看到巫统由本身也面对著贪污指控的拿督斯里阿末扎希领导，而没有未来才跳槽？或者他们希望通过改变效忠对像，可以继续获得肥缺？
也许他们正在寻求庇护，作为土团党的支持者或党员，换取免于面对贪腐提控。毕竟，自从希盟执政后，我们已经看到一大批巫统领袖排队面控──其中包括前1号和2号人物。但当来到砂拉越州元首敦泰益玛目面对的指控时，马哈迪政府似乎视而不见，有种说法，这是政治上的权宜之计，以决定谁将受对付，而谁又可豁免。
但是，土团党可能会察觉其加强本身地位的战略，会带来反效果，尤其当巫统跳槽者多过其本身议员时，谁能担保，前甲州首长阿都拉欣淡比仄不会成为土团党主席！
这可能是一个子虚乌有的忧虑。希望马哈迪和安华能够笑看巫统目前的发展，看著曾经强大且有无限权力的政党，如今四分五裂。毕竟，如果巫统党员仍然迷恋个人领导，而不是回到组织及斗争原则，那么他们还没从失败中吸取教训，而希盟不吸纳这些人，将会更好。
《政治跳槽：侮辱人民》（Party hopping: Doing a number on the people）原文：
IF Mahathir lives to 100, we will be the only nation with a centenarian as prime minister. So was the conclusion of a skeptical Pakatan Harapan (PH) member in a discussion on the much-debated succession plan.
The PH member was echoing doubt that the country’s fourth and seventh prime minister Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad would pass the baton over to his once successor-turned enemy-turned successor Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.
While both men had buried the hatchet for a common cause – to take on Datuk Seri Najib Razak amidst the 1MDB scandal in the 14th General Election, to some, it seemed humanly difficult to forget the past where Anwar spent 20 years fighting sexual allegations and spending some of those years in jail.
For Dr. Mahathir, it seemed out of character for him to let bygones be bygones, especially when at that time he was adamant over Anwar’s guilt and used all the resources and influence accorded to him as an autocratic leader to ensure that Anwar is destroyed politically.
But today the 93-year-old Dr. Mahathir heads a cabinet that comprises people he had put in jail or whose fathers he had imprisoned – Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng and Multimedia and Communications Minister Gobind Singh s/o Karpal Singh immediately come to mind.
The current Malaysian Government and ruling coalition is proof that in politics there is no such thing as permanent friends or permanent enemies.
With that in mind, his new friends in PH had been uneasy over Dr. Mahathir’s apparent cozying up to UMNO defectors. The DAP has already gone on record that it will never accept current UMNO members into the coalition
Of the 17 who have quit UMNO, three have joined Dr. Mahathir’s party Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (Bersatu) – the most senior being former Minister of International Trade and Industry Datuk Seri Mustapa Mohamad.
One can appreciate the prospect of getting more UMNO MPs into Bersatu. Following the seminal May 9 general elections, UMNO commanded the largest number of seats in the Dewan Rakyat with 54 proving that PH still has some way to go to attain the support of the Malays.
The PH coalition is lead in numbers by PKR with 47 (now 50) DAP with 42, Amanah with 11 and Parti Warisan Sabah with eight (now nine).
Bersatu commands the Cabinet with only 13 seats (now 16) and if one remembers there was much displeasure over the disproportionate number of ministers to seats in parliament at the forming of Dr. Mahathir’s cabinet.
Anwar had called for everyone to respect the PH agreement prior to the 14th General Election that mandated that Dr. Mahathir would be prime minister if the coalition won. Thus, as prime minister, Anwar said Dr. Mahathir must be given the space and freedom to select his own cabinet and make his own policies – albeit after discussing with his cabinet and coalition colleagues.
With the Port Dickson by-election engineered to put Anwar back into the Dewan Rakyat, the machinery is in motion for Anwar to succeed Dr. Mahathir in two years – as promised to the Rakyat.
However, to those still haunted by the events following Anwar’s sacking as deputy prime minister in 1998 and subsequent jailing, they doubt Dr. Mahathir’s sincerity in handing over the reins to Anwar. Talk of his preferred successor in Datuk Seri Azmin Ali is still fresh and has factored into the UMNO defections.
“But Mahathir will need to step down soon regardless. His wife (Tun Dr. Siti Hasmah Mohd Ali) is nagging him about his health,” said a Bersatu insider.
“Don’t forget, she wept when it was announced in Langkawi that Dr. Mahathir is the choice for prime minister if PH wins. She is worried about the prospect of losing her husband who is at a frail age, to the stresses of the job which she knows all too well.”
However, one must say that victory is an elixir. Dr. Mahathir seems to have an added spring in his step since May 9.
Perhaps the mouthwatering prospect of increasing Bersatu’s numbers in Parliament and by extension its influence in the Government is too enticing?
With all 17 defectors from UMNO, Bersatu will increase its numbers to 30, then, relying on the herd mentality of UMNO members, it would be a matter of time before it becomes the largest party in the Dewan Rakyat, delivering the two-thirds majority to PH and becoming the new champion of Malay rights. After all, loosely translated to English, Bersatu is the acronym for United Malays National Party / Organisation (UMNO).
This has prompted Amanah to also indicate it is open to accepting defectors to boost its own numbers. What is to stop MPs from PAS which has 18 Parliamentary seats to defect to Amanah?
It must be noted though some of the UMNO defectors are also making a beeline to Anwar’s door. After all, it would be prudent to make amends and alliances with the next in line.
Anwar however, has refused to entertain the idea, acknowledging that he will lose the trust of the people even before he becomes prime minister if he allows UMNO members, especially tainted ones to creep into PH.
He also reiterated that the current narrative over the UMNO defections are yet another attempt designed at pitting him against Dr Mahathir.
Contacted for this article Anwar had this to say: “The excitement over the defections and talks of a rift with Dr. Mahathir is unproductive. These issues contribute to the growing disillusionment amongst the people, especially the youth who have placed a lot of hope on us to provide a brighter future for them.”
He added: “This is politics as usual and frankly, it is getting tiring. We need to focus on nation building and fulfilling the mandate of the people. Drawing members from UMNO or any other party is not and should not be our preoccupation.”
The irony is that it is the split UMNO factions themselves, one seeking to be aligned to Dr. Mahathir and the other sucking up to Anwar which are creating the narrative by their statements. Both Dr.Mahathir and Anwar being seen with these UMNO leaders, whether in the Parliament Lounge or at one’s home only adds fuel to the fire. As they say, optics are everything.
One PH leader attempts some words of comfort: “At this point, Mahathir is seeking to salvage his legacy. Going back on the succession plan will taint that legacy. He will want to step down on a high note and cement his name in history as the hero who saved Malaysia.”
Dr. Mahathir has since assured that Bersatu will not accept tainted UMNO members – in response to criticisms from the rakyat as well as from within his own coalition. This stand is consistent with the anti-party hopping stance of PH coalition partners such as the DAP.
In the interest of democracy, no one should obtain a two-thirds majority either via cross-overs.
Bersatu cannot morph into an UMNO 2.0. Are those crossing over doing so because they genuinely do not see a future with UMNO lead by Datuk Seri Zahid Hamidi who is fighting corruption charges of his own? Or do they hope that the gravy train will keep coming their way if they switch allegiance?
Perhaps they are seeking sanctuary – that being a supporter or member of Bersatu will save them from corruption charges themselves. After all, since PH took over the country we have seen a slew of UMNO leaders being charged – including its former No.1 and No.2.
That Dr. Mahathir’s administration has looked the other way when it comes to Sarawak Governor Tun Abdul Taib Mahmud fuels talk that political expediency dictates whose neck is on the chopping block and who will escape being made to answer for alleged shenanigans.
But Bersatu could find that its strategy of strengthening its position has backfired as it is outnumbered by UMNO defectors. Who knows, it might get Tan Sri Rahim Thamby Chik as its next president!
But it could be a case of much ado over nothing. One is hopeful that Dr. Mahathir and Anwar are having a good laugh watching developments in UMNO, seeing the once powerful and almighty falling over each other to pledge loyalty to a leader of their choosing. After all, if UMNO members are still fixated on individual leaders instead of the organization and its struggle, then they are yet to learn anything, and PH is better off without such persons in their fold.
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