美国特朗普总统敲定了他的梦幻团队,让美国再次伟大,其中最引人注目的任命是企业家马斯克和共和党总统候选人初选竞选者之一的拉马斯瓦米,他们将领导新成立的政府效率部(DOGE)。

尽管名称为政府效率部,但该部门并不是政府机构,甚至有人认为该部门是为了帮助马斯克等商业大亨规避政府监管壮大财富之道。无论如何,依据特朗普所言,DOGE只是一个谘询委员会,从体制外协助政府,为白宫提供“建议和指导”,并与美国总统行政办公室之一行政管理和预算局合作,“推动大规模结构性改革,并为政府创造一种前所未见的企业家管理方式”。

政府效率部成世界榜样?

世界上许多国家将密切关注美国政府效率部的作用,这不仅因为其对美国的影响,而且其还可能成为本国政府的榜样。这不仅适用于美国的西方盟友,尤其最近的民意调查显示,这些国家人民对政府的失望和不信任日益明显。在发展中国家如马来西亚等也存在这种情况,这些国家的官僚机构迅速且不受控制地膨胀——日益臃肿、落伍、不负责任和腐败——这阻碍了社会进步,而不是促进了社会经济进步。

特朗普解释,成立政府效率部,这一出人意料的举动是为了冲击政府体系,并“为我的执政团队扫除官僚机构、削减多馀监管、削减浪费性支出和重组联邦机构铺平道路”。

据马斯克称,如果政府效率部取得成功,其可以将美国当前6.4兆美元(约28.4兆令吉)的联邦预算削减至2兆美元(约8.8兆令吉),而拉马斯瓦米则宣称,这可以将联邦雇员人数减少多达75%。

特朗普直言不讳地表示,这是为了解决政府支出中的“大规模浪费和欺诈”问题。在关于成立政府效率部的声明中没有突出的是,其是为了解决体制内深层势力,这是特朗普及其支持者认为特朗普在第一任总统期间的政策改革无法落实和推动的主因。

特朗普这位候任总统在今年总统竞选第一次集会上对支持者表示:“要么深层政府摧毁美国,要么我们摧毁深层政府。”

这说来容易做来难。先前削减联邦官僚机构的尝试也以失败告终——最近一次就是在里根总统任期内——而且可以预期,国会内部的关键势力、联邦官僚机构和深层国家——将奋力阻止任何尝试缩小官僚机构权力举措,因为这威胁到他们的影响力和权力。

改革注定失败

诋毁和阻挠政府效率部的运动已经开始,CNN和《纽约时报》等美国主流媒体巨头甚至在该机构还没开始运作前,就全力唱衰该机构。目前最受青睐的攻击路线是,新机构是特朗普的报复和复仇工具。美国左翼人士也加入了主流媒体的行列,担心政府效率部可能成为大企业的工具。主要的社会主义刊物和社交媒体“雅各宾”最近的一篇报导就将政府效率部描述为“愚蠢和反乌托邦”,并预见该部门与特朗普的关系“很快就会瓦解”。

这次史无前例的制度改革尝试,除了面对著失败外,还可能带来其他结果。

最有可能的结果是,政府效率部功能会日益失色——不是很明显,但可能会伴随著噪音。美国前国会预算办公室主任、现为中右翼美国行动论坛主席道格拉斯霍尔茨埃金认为,政府效率部只是一个谘询工作组,充其量是一个高权力智囊团,但没有迹象显示会获得国会两党支持和预算以推行其计划,政府效率部的成败将取决于马斯克和拉马斯瓦米的说服力。两人都是企业家,没有从政经验,他们的商业实力在国会丛林中起不了多大作用。同时,他们的后台特朗普将面临更大的挑战,因此特朗普这种特殊的“震惊和敬畏”委任方式,可能只有短暂效果。

其次,虽然政府效率部可能会关掉一些政府机构,但通过鼓励提前退休和自愿离职来缩小政府规模的过程,会比在私人界困难得多。他们将面对著来自华盛顿特区联邦政府的官僚精英和支持者构成的进步派和保守派的一系列法律和政治挑战。

因此,要改变华盛顿政治生态和对抗深层政府,这将是一场失败的斗争。更有可能的是,即使改变了目前民主党执政下的政治生态,也只是换汤不换药,华盛顿政治圈之后也会被特朗普自己支持者重新填满,他们只关心自己的利益和福祉,而不是美国的利益和福祉。

深层政府及其在联邦调查局、中央情报局、国防部、司法部门以及军事工业复合体中的势力,将是政府效率部最难克服的障碍。深层政府势力已对特朗普发出了警告。预计马斯克和拉马斯瓦米将是下一个目标。

许多马来西亚人将密切关注美国政府效率部发展,看看我们可以从中学到什么,以应用于大马的官僚机构和深层政府。

林德宜《马斯克政府效率部可应用在大马吗?》原文:Can Musk’s DOGE Be Applied to Malaysia?

As President Trump finalises his dream team to make the United States (US) great again, the most intriguing appointment is of Elon Musk and Vivek former Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). 

Despite its name, the department is not a government agency though it has been suggested that it is to help business tycoons such as Musk dodge government regulations by leveraging their wealth. It is an advisory commission that, according to Trump, will work from outside government to offer the White House “advice and guidance” and partner with the Office of Management and Budget to “drive large-scale structural reform, and create an entrepreneurial approach to government never seen before”. 

DOGE Role Model for the World?

DOGE is an undertaking which many countries in the world will be looking at closely not only for its impact in the US but as a possible role model for their own governments. This applies not only to western allies of the US where disillusionment and distrust of government have become more pronounced as evidenced by recent polls and opinion surveys. It is also found in countries in the developing world such as Malaysia where the rapid and unchecked growth of their bureaucracies - increasingly bloated, outdated, unaccountable and corrupt - has hindered rather than contributed to their socio-economic progress. 

Trump explained that the surprise move was to shock government systems and to “pave the way for my administration to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies”.

According to Musk, if DOGE succeeds, it can trim up to US$2 trillion from the current US federal budget of US$6.4 trillion whilst Ramaswamy has touted that it could reduce the number of federal employees by as much as 75%. 

Trump has also been vocal that it is to address “massive waste and fraud” in government spending. Less prominent in pronouncements on DOGE is that it is to drain the swamp and to battle the deep state that Trump and supporters see as the main reason for his inability to implement the policy reforms of his first term.

“Either the deep state destroys America, or we destroy the deep state,” the president-elect told supporters at his first rally of the 2024 election cycle.

This is easier said than done. Not only have previous attempts at trimming back the federal bureaucracy failed - the most recent during Reagan’s presidency -  it can be expected that key forces within Congress, the federal bureaucracy and deep state actors - will fight to kill off attempts at downsizing the bureaucracy as this threatens their influence and power.  

Why DOGE Will Fail

The campaign to disparage and stymie DOGE has already begun in earnest with US mainstream media giants such as CNN and New York Times fully engaged in bad mouthing the proposed agency even before it has begun work. The most favoured line of attack for now is that the new agency is an attempt at revenge and retribution by Trump. Mainstream media voices are being joined by those from the American left concerned that DOGE may be a tool for big business. A recent report in Jacobin, a leading socialist print and social media outfit described DOGE as  “asinine and dystopian” and expressed the hope that its relationship with the Trump administration “flames out spectacularly” 

There may be a number of other possible outcomes, apart from flaming out, from this unprecedented attempt at institutional reform 

The one with the highest possibility is that it will fade out - not spectacularly but probably with a whimper. Conceived as a advisory task force - a high powered think tank at best according to Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former director of the Congressional Budget Office and now president of the centre-right American Action Forum - there is no evidence of bipartisan support and budget to get its plans going, DOGE is dependent on the persuasive power of Musk and Ramaswamy. Both are entrepreneurs without political experience to bring to the congressional jungle where their business prowess will not count for much. 

Meanwhile, their promoter, Trump, will have bigger battles on his hands so this particular “shock and awe” approach is likely to prove short-lived.  

A second is that while DOGE may bring about some closure of governmental agencies, the process of downsizing through encouraging early retirement and voluntary departure is much more difficult than in the private sector. There will be a thicket of legal and political challenges to overcome from progressive and conservative quarters that have constituents who are a part or supportive of the federal bureaucracy elite ensconced in Washington D.C.
 
As for draining the swamp and fighting the deep state, these too appear a losing battle. More likely is that even if the current Democrat swamp is drained, it will be a partial drainage and will be refilled with supporters from Trump's own swamp looking out for their own rather than America’s interests and well being.

The deep state with its support groups embedded in the FBI, CIA, Defence and Justice departments and the military industrial complex will be the hardest obstacle for DOGE to overcome. The warning shots have already been fired at Trump. Expect these to continue with Musk and Ramaswamy as the latest targets.

Many Malaysians will be looking very closely at what happens with DOGE to see what we can learn from it to apply to our own bureaucracy and the deep state.

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