中国在“金砖国家”建设中发挥了主导作用,现在是交棒的时候了。

金砖5国领导人于8月23日在南非会晤时,西方媒体贬低金砖5国的重要性,并诋毁这个“大杂烩”国家联盟,能否成为国际上经济和政治的一股力量。

实际上,金砖国家其中两个最重要成员国──印度和中国,长久以来无法解决彼此边界争端,这为媒体提供了依据,以渲染两国永远无法合作的情景,并点出为何金砖国家会失败。

这疑虑至今依然存在。

但金砖5国南非峰会不仅圆满落幕。如今,随著6个新成员国加入了金砖5国行列,金砖国家将是当下全球最热门的地缘政治俱乐部。这6国成员资格将于2024年1月生效。

这6个新成员是伊朗、沙地阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、埃及、阿根廷和埃塞俄比亚。

与此同时,另有16个国家也申请加入这个经济集团。这包括阿尔及利亚、巴林、孟加拉、白俄罗斯、玻利维亚、古巴、洪都拉斯、印尼、哈萨克斯坦、科威特、尼日利亚、巴勒斯坦、塞内加尔、泰国、委内瑞拉和越南。

此外,在撰写本文时,阿富汗、安哥拉、科摩罗、刚果民主共和国、加蓬、几内亚比绍、墨西哥、尼加拉瓜、巴基斯坦、苏丹、叙利亚、突尼斯、乌干达、乌拉圭和津巴布韦都表示有兴趣加入金砖国家。

金砖国家国内生产总值:

巴西:2.08兆美元
俄罗斯:2.06兆美元
印度:3.74兆美元
中国:19.37兆美元
南非:3990亿美元


金砖国家新成员国内生产总值:

阿根廷:6410亿美元
埃及:3870亿美元
埃塞俄比亚:1560亿美元
伊朗:3670亿美元
沙地阿拉伯:1.06兆美元
阿联酋:4990亿美元


金砖国家11个成员国的经济影响力,可以从他们在全球经济的综合权重中看出。扩大后的11国之国内生产总值达30.76兆美元(142.73兆令吉),接近世界生产总值的1/3,这些成员国中,一些也是国际贸易、商业和经济领域的关键利益者。

沙地阿拉伯、伊朗和阿联酋加入金砖国家后,将可能左右全球石油和天然气行业,石油和天然气不只是世界主要燃料,也是许多领域,从药品、医疗保健到化肥、洗涤剂和塑料的原料来源。据估计,扩大后的金砖国家将控制世界石油产量的80%。

除了在重塑石油经济方面发挥作用外,扩大后的金砖国家还可能在左右中东及其他地区的地缘政治方面发挥作用。金砖国家扩大后的经济和地缘政治影响,已可从其对美元和货币市场的影响日益受到关注中显示;这也包括去美元化的可能;当前发展融资的替代方案;以及其他经济领域的影响。

发展中小国申请加入金砖国家,主要两大因素:

1.一是这些小国经济无法在国际货币基金组织和世界银行经济改革体制下取得进展。而金砖国家被视为能提供更慷慨的融资、更大的出口市场和更自由的经济政策制定,这将刺激这些小国经济增长并更有效地减少贫困。这些对于亚洲、非洲和拉丁美洲的发展中国家更具有吸引力,尤其是那些面对著国际货币基金组织祭出小胡萝卜加大棒的做法,要求他们进行结构调整和紧缩计划者。

2.二为,金砖国家转变为一个经济平台,当然当年金砖国家成立时的首要目标,重组世界政治和治理结构,也依然是同样重要的目标。

2014年,金砖国家发表的声明具体化了其雄心:

我们愿意全面探索合作的新领域,打造更加紧密的经济伙伴关系,促进市场联动、资金融通、基础设施联通、人文交流 (福塔雷萨宣言)

如今,虽然约翰内斯堡峰会的官方公报并未充分阐明,但扩大后的金砖国家正在受到一个共同愿景的推动,即建立一个更公平、平衡、公正和具有代表性的全球政治、经济和金融体系。

小题:抗衡西方

实际上,美国及其盟国近年在伊拉克、利比亚、叙利亚和阿富汗发动的战争,让所有国家都认识到政治和经济比以往任何时候都更加紧密地交织在一起。以美国居首的西方主导地位,继续以干涉他国内政和发动经济战争的手段,对付俄罗斯、中国、伊朗、古巴、委内瑞拉和其他不同意或不认同美国制定并形容为“国际秩序下的规则”者。

巴西总统卢拉:今天,金砖国家作为具有战略价值的品牌和政治资产得到全面巩固。数十位国家元首和政府首脑参加的扩大会议将是一项历史性成就。这是推动“南方世界”朝向一个更平等和可持续的发展。愿15年前金砖国家成立的动力继续激励我们建设多极、公平、包容的有秩序的世界。

俄罗斯总统普京:我们在平等、伙伴支持、尊重彼此利益的原则上进行合作,这是我们联盟面向未来战略方针的精髓,这一方针符合世界主要国家的愿望,即所谓的全球大多数,

印度总理莫迪:我相信金砖国家和友好国家能够为加强多极世界做出贡献

中国国家主席习近平:金砖国家是塑造国际格局的重要力量。我们自主选择发展道路,共同捍卫发展权,携手走向现代化,

南非总统拉马福萨:我们回顾1955年万隆会议,亚非国家要求发展中国家在国际事务中拥有更大发言权。大会呼吁承认所有国家,无论大小,一律平等。我们依然拥护著追求一个公平与公正的世界之共同愿景。

我们可以看到,金砖国家扩大后所建立起的合作和联盟不仅仅是经济和技术上的扶持。

其最终目标是对抗和抗衡更强大、更富裕的西方及其盟友,以及他们对世界体系的持续霸权。

如果这能成功,全球各国将迎来一个新的世界秩序。

林德宜《缔造历史:扩大金砖国家建立世界新秩序》原文:History in the Making: Enlarged BRICS Sets Up a New World Order

China has played a lead role in establishing BRICS. It's time now to pass the baton

The five nation BRICS met in South Africa on 23rd August 2023 amidst western media disparagement of the importance of the grouping and aspersions cast on whether the “hodgepodge” of nations it represented would amount to any kind of force in international economy and politics. 

The fact that its two most prominent members, India and China, have been in a protracted frontier dispute has long provided grist for media analysis to play up the scenario that the two nations would never be able to work together and to argue as to why BRICS would fail.  

The doubts still exist. 

But BRICS 15 was not only a success. Today BRICS is the hottest geo-political club in the world with six countries now joining the pioneering five and their membership taking effect in January 2024. 

The six new members are Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Argentina and Ethiopia. 

Meanwhile another 16 countries have applied to join the economic bloc. They include Algeria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Belarus, Bolivia, Cuba, Honduras, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Nigeria, Palestine, Senegal, Thailand, Venezuela and Vietnam.  

Further - at this time of writing - Afghanistan, Angola, Comoros, DR Congo, Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Mexico, Nicaragua, Pakistan, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Uganda, Uruguay and Zimbabwe have expressed interest in BRICS membership. 

BRICS Membership GDP

Brazil: $2.08 Trillion
Russia:  $2.06 T
India:  $3.74 T
China:  $19.37 T
South Africa:  $399 Billion

BRICS New Members  GDP

Argentina  $641 Billion
Egypt: $387 B
Ethiopia:  $156 B
Iran:    $367 B
Saudi Arabia:  $1.06T
UAE   $499 B

The economic clout of the current 11 current members can be seen in their combined weight in the global economy. Amounting to US30.76 trillion in GDP terms or close to one third of the world’s total GDP, the enlarged grouping includes several key stake players and stake holders in international trade, commerce and economics. 

The inclusion of Saudi Arabia. Iran and UAE are potential game changers in the oil and natural gas industries which play a key role as the world’s leading source of primary fuel and by products ranging from pharmaceuticals and health care to fertilizers, detergents and plastic. It has been estimated that the enlarged BRICS will control 80% of world oil production.

Apart from its role in reshaping oil economics, the enlarged BRICS is likely to play a role in reshaping the geo-politics of the Middle East and beyond. The economic and geo-political reverberations of the enlarged BRICS can already be seen in the increasing attention given to its impact on the US dollar and currency markets; the possibility of de dollarization; alternatives to current development financing; and in other economic sectors. 

New members from small developing countries applying to join BRICS are doing for two primary reasons

1. The first relates to their economic inability to progress under International Monetary Fund and World Bank economic reform regimes. BRICS is seen as providing more generous financing, access to larger markets and freer economic policy making that would spur economic growth and reduce poverty more effectively. These features are especially alluring to developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America that have suffered from the small carrot and big stick approach of the IMF's structural adjustment and austerity programs. 

2. The second relates to the metamorphosis of BRICS as a economic platform which was its primary objective when the bloc first emerged to one in which restructuring the world’s political and governance structure have become just as important objectives. 

In 2014 its modest ambitions were crystallized by the declaration issued:  

We are ready to explore new areas towards a comprehensive cooperation and a closer economic partnership to facilitate market inter-linkages, financial integration, infrastructure connectivity as well as people-to-people contacts? (Fortaleza Declaration)

Today although not fully articulated in the official communiques that have emerged from the Johannesburg Summit, the enlarged BRICS is being driven by a common vision of a more equitable, balanced, just and representative global political, economic and financial system.    

The fact that politics and economics are more inextricably intertwined than ever before has been brought home to all countries in the recent wars waged by the US and its allies in Iraq, Libya, Syria and Afghanistan. US led western dominance and interference in the internal affairs of continues in the economic war waged by the US and the west against Russia, China, Iran, Cuba, Venezuela, and other nations not subscribing or agreeing with the current system of US devised self defined “rules-based international order”. 

Brazil President Lula: Today BRICS is fully consolidated as a brand and political asset of strategic value.The participation of dozens of Heads of State and Government in tomorrow's expanded session will be a historic achievement.This is yet another opportunity to advance the Global South as to inequalities and sustainable development. May the impetus that motivated the creation of the BRICS 15 years ago continue to inspire us in building a multipolar, fair and inclusive order.

Russian President Putin: We cooperate on the principles of equality, partnership support, respect for each other’s interests, and this is the essence of the future-oriented strategic course of our association, a course that meets the aspirations of the main part of the world community, the so-called global majority,

Indian PM Modi:  I believe that BRICS nations and friendly nations present here can contribute to strengthening a multipolar world  

China President Xi: “BRICS is an important force in shaping the international landscape.
We choose our development paths independently, jointly defend our right to development and march in tandem toward modernization,

South Africa President Ramaposa:  We recall the Bandung Conference of 1955, where Asian and African nations demanded a greater voice for developing countries in world affairs. The Conference called for the recognition of the equality of all nations, large and small. We still share that common vision of a fair and just world. 

We can see that the bloc and alliance the enlarged BRICS is putting in place is not simply one to help each other economically and technologically. 

It is one with its ultimate objective to counter and fight off the stronger and richer west and allies and its continued hegemony of the world system. 

Should this be successful, a new world order will arrive for all countries of the world.

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