即便是好莱坞，也难以拍出这出正在美国与全球观众手机萤幕前同步上演的扣人心弦剧情。
就在不久前，美国总统特朗普还夸赞马斯克是“世上最伟大的商业领袖与创新者之一”，并盛赞他在“几代以来最深远的美国政府改革中”扮演关键角色之际，如今这位“亲密战友”却变成特朗普不留情对战的对手。
两人决裂源起于美国那份“大而美”支出法案，但很快演变成一场高调的公开冲突——主角是世界上最有权力与最有财富的两个男人。
这是一场前所未有的厮杀——涉及人身攻击、财务威胁以及不当行为的指控，无所不用其极。
从“亲密战友”到“头号敌人”
美国政治分析家将两人决裂视为一场围绕历史上最大规模支出法案的内政对决。这项“大而美”的联邦支出法案，据国会预算办公室（CBO）估算，未来十年内可能让美国增加2.4兆美元（超过10兆令吉）的债务。
马斯克痛批这项法案是“令人作呕的恶法”、“庞大、离谱、充满政治肥肉”，并警告该法案将对美国债务与普通民众生活造成重大打击。反观特朗普则认为，这项法案将改善美国的财政，并引领一波“前所未见的经济成长时代”。他甚至称这可能是“美国历史上最重要的法案之一”。
在民主党与共和党人之间，为捍卫各自立场，对这项法案与两位主角，纷纷标上“幻想”、“骗局”、“荒诞”、“不道德”等字眼——美国分裂仍在继续，其对美国未来经济的影响，远未明朗。
地缘政治效应
全球各地，也正密切关注特朗普与马斯克决裂所带来的影响：
以下是此次事件对全球地缘政治的潜在影响分析。
对美国科技政策的影响
马斯克原本领导著“政府效率部”（DOGE），负责简化官僚机制并主导美国科技政策调整。如今随著与特朗普的决裂，其角色明显告终，这场争执将个人冲突转化为地缘政治催化剂，并将加速科技与美国脱钩趋势。
经济动荡与贸易战升温
特朗普最近的关税与保护主义措施，已引起多国反弹。马斯克对最新税收与支出法案的强烈反对——尤其是其对电动车与太空产业的潜在冲击——预示著美国内部冲突可能进一步演变为全球经济与安全政策的不确定性。
政治联盟与资金转变
马斯克过去向特朗普和共和党候选人提供了巨额资金捐助，两人决裂意味著政治资金将转向和政治格局转变，这将影响民主党和共和党的竞争，以及美国外交政策制定。
软实力与国际认知
特朗普与马斯克关系公开破裂，也加剧了人们对美国内部不确定性和不和认知。这将削弱美国盟友的信任，以及美国在全球的软实力和硬实力霸权地位。
对北约与欧洲关系冲击
特朗普对北约价值的质疑与对盟友的交易式态度，已使欧洲盟友不安。如今美国内政乱象加剧，加上特朗普与马斯克之争，将进一步推动欧洲寻求外交与防务自主，亚洲盟友如台湾也会感受到这一变化。
国家权力与企业影响力模糊界线
马斯克对国家政策的涉入，突显美国政府与企业之间的权力平衡日益转变。如今随著特朗普与马斯克决裂，可能影响企业界在塑造国家和国际政策的力量。
社交媒体影响力
特朗普与马斯克的争论，主要是在X（原Twitter）和Truth Social社交媒体平台上进行，之后再被主流媒体大肆报道，凸显了社交媒体在地缘政治话语平台中，日益重要的角色。这可牵动舆论和政策的快速转变，并可能带来意想不到的后果。
显而易见的是，特朗普与马斯克之间的纷争不仅是个人恩怨，也不仅仅是一场美国内政纷争。尽管这反映了美国国内政治和经济紧张局势，但鉴于两人的全球影响力，这很可能导致地缘政治格局更加难以预测，甚至更加动荡。
长远影响
当前，特朗普与其共和党盟友正全面发动对马斯克的“妖魔化”攻势，毫无和解迹象，尽管有部分共和党人呼吁缓和当下局面。
与此同时，马斯克个人资产也大幅缩水，少了大约340亿美元（1437亿令吉）。尽管如此，据彭博社估计，马斯克仍以3345亿美元（1.4兆令吉）身价，稳坐全球首富。
面对这场决裂，马斯克呼吁组建一个代表“中间80%民众”的新政党。若真成形，将可能进一步分化美国保守派和进步派，削弱美国外交政策的凝聚力。然而，在美国历史上第三党派少有成功案例，因此新政党的成立不太可能发生，但这或许能成为使“美国更伟大”的催化剂。
目前，马斯克在X平台上只能与支持者聊以自慰道：
“特朗普还有3年半任期，”“但我还有至少40年的时间。”
林德宜《特朗普对决马斯克：美国内政与地缘政治震荡》原文：Trump Versus Musk : Domestic and Geopolitical Repercussions
A third party may make America greater than what it presently is
Hollywood could not have produced a more riveting movie playing out to audiences in the United States and around the world to anyone having a handphone.
Just a few days after praising Elon Musk as "one of the greatest business leaders and innovators the world has ever produced” with what he described as a leading role in the "most sweeping and consequential government reform effort in generations”, President
Donald Trump is now engaged in a no holds barred fight with his “First Buddy”.
Although the battle field is the U.S. and “the big beautiful bill”, it rapidly degenerated into a public brawl with larger implications between what many see as the two most powerful and richest men in the world.
It is a fight that is unprecedented for its personal below the belt attacks, financial threats and allegations of misconduct and impropriety.
First Buddy To First Enemy
American analysts following this feud have assessed it in terms of the domestic impact of the largest spending bill in American history. The “big and beautiful” federal spending proposal is estimated to add a possible U.S$2.4 trillion to America’s debt over the next decade according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.
Musk has described the bill as “a disgusting abomination”, and as “massive, outrageous and pork-filled"; and warned of its negative impact on America’s debt burden and the lives of ordinary Americans. Trump sees the bill as improving ”the fiscal trajectory of the United States” and unleashing “an era of unprecedented economic growth”. He has also characterized it as arguably ”the most significant piece of Legislation that will ever be signed in the History of our Country!”
“Myth, hoax, grotesque, immoral” are some of the descriptions thrown by the Democrats and Republicans at each other’s position on the bill as well as at the protagonists. They will not be the last words hurled in this ongoing battle and its possible impact on the economic future and of the U.S.
Geopolitical Ramifications Of The Fallout
Elsewhere in the world, the fallout effects in the relationship between Trump and Musk are also receiving special attention.
Here's a breakdown of potential fallout effects on global geopolitics
Impact on U.S. Tech Policy
Musk's involvement, particularly as head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) established to streamline bureaucracy and shift national technological policy, now appears to have ended. The feud, transforming a personal clash into a geopolitical catalyst, will accelerate tech decoupling away from the U.S.
Economic Instability and Trade Wars
Trump's latest tariff and protectionist policy measures have already sparked resistance in countries around the world. Musk's opposition to Trump's recent tax and spending bill, which impacts the electric vehicle and space industry, suggests a potential for continued internal conflict that could translate into unpredictable economic and security policies with global
repercussions.
Shifting Political Alliances and Funding
Musk's significant financial contributions to Trump and Republican candidates in the past indicate a volatile landscape for political funding and influence. This internal money and political shifting will impact on rivalry between Democrats and Republicans as well as on American foreign policy making.
Soft Power and International Perception
The public spectacle of the Trump-Musk fallout has added considerably to the perception of unpredictability and internal discord within the U.S. This is eroding trust among allies and the U.S's soft power and hard power hegemonic position globally.
NATO and European Relations
The Trump administration questioning of NATO's value and Trump’s transactional approach to alliances have strained relations with European allies. The internal U.S. political discord, amplified by the Trump-Musk feud, further introduces uncertainty to these alliances including in the defence and security areas and is pushing European nations to seek greater self-reliance in foreign policy.
This will also impact in U.S. allies in Asia, especially Taiwan.
Blurring Lines between Corporate and State Authority
Musk's intervention in U.S. policy decisions highlights a growing shift in the balance of power between government and corporations. The fallout could affect the ability of private entities to shape national and international policy.
Influence of Social Media Platforms
The public nature of their dispute, largely conducted on X (formerly Twitter) and Truth Social and hugely amplified by mainstream media, underscores the increasing role that social media platforms play as arenas for geopolitical discourse. This can lead to rapid shifts in sentiment and policy, with potential for unintended consequences.
What is clear is that the Trump-Musk fallout is more than just a personal dispute or one with consequences for solely American domestic policy. Although a highly visible manifestation of political and economic tensions within the U.S. the reverberations are likely to contribute to more unpredictable and potentially volatile geopolitical dynamics in view of the global reach of the two.
The Longer Term Impact
Presently, Musk is at the receiving end of a demonizing campaign by Trump and his Republican colleagues which shows little sign of reconciliation, although this is being urged by a small number of Musk’s Republican supporters.
Meantime he has incurred a significant financial loss with his personal net worth plummeting by an estimated $34 billion. Despite this massive decline, Musk remains the world's wealthiest individual with a fortune estimated at $334.5 billion according to Bloomberg.
In response Musk has called for a new U.S. party targeting the "80% in the middle". Should this development take place, it could fracture both conservative and progressive movements and further weaken U.S. foreign policy cohesion. Although unlikely to happen given the record of third parties in America, such a development may well provide the catalyst needed to make America greater than what it presently is.
For now, this is Musk’s consolation shared with his supporters:
"Trump has 3.5 years left as president," Musk wrote on X, "but I will be around for 40-plus years.”
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