当前媒体对美国总统大选的关注，忽略了美国对当前的动荡地缘政治关键角色和美国主导的世界秩序之审视。
七国集团（G7）这个发达国家经济论坛，一直充当美国经济和外交政策议程的打手，如今自身难保，陷入了混乱局面。意大利新当选的总统来自激进右翼，其保守的民族主义浪潮、反现任领袖或政党、反移民情绪和选举带来的震荡，已对整个欧洲大陆产生了馀震。
如今，欧洲主要国家如法国和德国，长期执政的政党不仅受到挑战，支持度也有所下降。在未来三年内，法国的马克龙实际上是一位跛脚鸭总统，其国内和外交政策权力被削弱了。德国总理肖尔茨也面临类似的命运，他领导的联合政府在最近的欧洲议会选举中进一步右转与分裂。
同时，在日本，首相岸田文雄已辞去自己在政府及其政党自民党的职务。面对低迷的经济、普遍存在的政治和金钱丑闻，以及不受欢迎的执政党和反对党，日本在可预见的未来将陷入停滞，将面对著一个由不受欢迎和缺乏多数人强有力支持的领袖来领导。
日本在国内政治中群龙无首，就会更依赖美国的外交政策领导。这可从2024年至2027年，日本从和平主义的外交政策转向以创纪录的军事开支为主导的外交政策，反映出来。除了与美国旨在遏制和对抗中国的亚太政策更加趋同之外，日本还放宽了向其他国家出售和供应致命武器和弹药的出口限制。日本似乎忘了从第二次世界大战，尤其是广岛和长崎事件中学到的教训。
11月之后
无论是特朗普还是哈里斯赢得美国总统选举，他或她都必须优先处理美国本土分裂的国内问题，而这些问题是各自政党和政治领导层长期无法解决的。
改善就业、通货膨胀、移民、种族、堕胎、医疗保健、最高法院和司法、犯罪和枪支管制——社会文化、经济和本土政治课题的混合和相互作用，已经使这些问题变得更棘手和无法解决。无论谁获胜，无论胜出的优势有多大，无论媒体或智囊团的啦啦队们怎么说，美国社会在大选后将继续两极分化，在主要国内问题上，共和党和民主党领导人以及其支持者都会持续著对立局面。
与此同时，自1958年以来追踪美国人对政府信任度的民意调查显示，美国民众对政府的信任度处于或接近历史低点。截至2024年4月，只有约22％的美国人表示，他们相信华盛顿政府“几乎总是”（2%）或“大多数时候”（21%）会做正确的事情。去年，只有16%的人表示他们几乎总是或大部分时间都信任政府，这是近七十年来民调中对政府信任度最低的一次。
同样重要的是，美国民众对大多数的16个主要机构都缺乏信任。无论是总统、国会、司法、医疗系统、教会和有组织的宗教、银行、警察、公立学校、报纸和电视新闻等，公众对这些作为美国生活方式指标的机构信任度直线下降，达到类似于美国严厉批评的那一些“失败”国家的水平。
如果美国领导人不能激发起人们对这些的机构的信任，也无法向本国民众推销他们的信心和价值，那么我们还能指望美国能唤起和推销什么给他们的盟友、马来西亚或世界其他国家呢？
目前，不应对美国抱持任何幻想，美国透过其军事-工业-商业-媒体和学术综合体（MICMA）的巨大资源、影响力和主导地位，以及其少数中坚盟友的支持下—美国将依然会是战争、军事征服、炮舰外交、不平等条约、经济剥削、制裁和其他肮脏手段的主要煽动者和实施者。
我们可以预期，美国的MICMA及其主要欧洲合作伙伴，现在包括了日本，将一切如常，尤其是在利润丰厚的全球武器市场。
不付钱，就走开
不过，对于七国集团和北约成员国来说，美国总统的选举结果将带来一个重要的差异。无论谁获胜，美国都将鉴于美国国债的困境，尤其最近达到了创纪录的34兆美元（146兆令吉），以及2024年迄今为止超过1.5兆美元（6.4兆令吉）的巨额年度赤字，七国集团和北约成员国将不得不承担更多美国在全球的军事开销。
据法国《世界报》〈为何特朗普指责北约成员国拖欠款项？〉一文中，特朗普指出：“我说，你没有付款，你拖欠了……不，我不会保护你。反之，我会鼓动他们（俄罗斯人）为所欲为。”
英国卫报引述以下内容
他（特朗普）讲述了与一名不具名的北约成员谈话，他在谈话中说：“你没有付费？你拖欠款项？不，我不会保护你。事实上，我会鼓励他们做任何他们想做的事。你得付钱。你必须支付你的账单。”
如果哈里斯获胜，她的政府很可能会采取与特朗普相同的立场，要求北约和其他美国盟友必须承担更多费用才能获得美国保护的“特权”。
七国集团和北约公民也许可以安慰自己，美国不再是北约的主要金主，这可能会对他们在外交政策上的忠诚和依赖产生积极的反作用。如果情况如此，这可能会为结束乌克兰战争迈出第一步，并有助于为该区域带来真正的和平与安全。
亚太地区领导人也应注意到，七国集团和北约成员国从2025财政年起将面临承担更多美国军费问题，也会反映到澳洲、日本、韩国、台湾和菲律宾的国防预算上，尤其，美国在这些国家和地区拥有超过750个军事基地。
这些亚太国家终究会了解到——正如澳洲人在澳英美三方安全伙伴关系（AUKUS）中发现——在本区域扮演美国副手的代价，不只使他们和下一代付出高昂金钱代价，也将令他们卷入无法控制，也不会带来胜利的战争。
林德宜《新世界秩序即将到来》原文：A New World Order Is Coming
Current media attention on the US presidential election is missing out examining the unprecedented turbulence affecting key players in geopolitics and the current world order dominated by the United States.
The Group of Seven (G7) advanced economies forum, which has been functioning as a handmaiden of the US economic and foreign policy agenda, is now in disarray. Italy has a newly elected president from the radical rightwing and its nationalist conservatism wave, anti incumbency, anti immigrant sentiments, and electoral volatility have had aftershocks reverberating across the continent.
Today, France and Germany, the leading European nations, are having the grip of long running parties not just challenged but also loosened. Emmanuel Macron is virtually a lame duck President during the next 3 years with diluted powers in domestic and foreign policy. A similar fate awaits Olaf Scholz. He is in charge of a coalition government which has turned further right and splintered more during the recent European Parliament election.
Meanwhile in Japan, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio has booted himself out of his position in government and his party, the Liberal Democrat party. Faced with a lacklustre economy, endemic political and money scandals and unpopular ruling government and opposition parties, Japan is stalled for the foreseeable future with weak factionless leadership lacking strong majority support.
Rudderless in domestic politics, Japan is now even more dependent on the US for foreign policy leadership. This is clear as seen in its unprecedented break from a more pacifist foreign policy to one with a record military expenditure beginning 2024 and extending to 2027. Besides greater convergence with US policy in the Asia-Pacific region aimed at containing and contesting China, Japan has loosened export restrictions on the sale and supply of lethal weapons and munitions to other countries. It seems like Japan has forgotten learning from the Second World War and Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
What Happens Next After November
Whether it is Trump or Harris winning the Presidential election in the US, he or she will have to prioritise the domestic issues dividing the country and which their respective parties and political leadership have been unable to resolve.
Better jobs, inflation, immigration, race, abortion, health care, Supreme Court and justice, crime and gun control - the blend and interplay of socio-cultural, economic and political homegrown problems and concerns have become more toxic and unresolvable. Whoever wins, however large the margin and whatever the feel good cheerleaders in the media or think tanks have to say, US society - post election - will remain polarised and disunited with Republicans and Democratic leaders and voters on opposite sides of the fence on major domestic issues.
Meantime, the polls tracking American trust in government which go back to 1958 are at or near record lows. As of April 2024, an overwhelming minority 22% of Americans say they trust the government in Washington to do what is right “just about always” (2%) or “most of the time” (21%). Last year, 16% said they trusted the government just about always or most of the time, which was among the lowest measure in nearly seven decades of polling.
What's also significant is that there is little trust in most of the 16 identified major US institutions. Whether it be the presidency, Congress, judiciary, medical system, the Church and organised religion, banks, police, public schools, newspapers and tv news, etc. public trust in the institutions that are the hallmark of the American way of life has plummeted to levels that resemble those of the ‘failed’ states that admirers of the US are prone to referring to when castigating countries they target for criticism.
If US leaders cannot inspire trust in their institutions or sell their confidence and worth to their own public, what is it that we can expect of them to inspire and sell to their allies, Malaysia or the rest of the world?
For now, there should be no illusion that the US - through the enormous resources, reach and primacy of its military - industrial - commercial - media and academic complex (MICMA) and the support of its deputy sheriffs in the small number of faithful allied countries - will continue being the chief instigator and perpetrator of wars, military conquest, gunboat diplomacy, unequal treaties, economic exploitation, sanctions and other dirty tricks.
We can expect It to be business as usual for America's MICMA and its junior mainly European associates - but now including Japan - especially at the lucrative global weapons market.
Pay Up Or Else!
There will be one important difference though for G7 and NATO members arising from the US Presidential outcome. Whoever wins will insist that member countries will have to cough up and pay a lot more given the distressed state of the US national debt which recently hit a record US$34 trillion, and the huge annual deficit of over US1.5 trillion so far for 2024.
According to the French newspaper Le Monde report, “Why did Donald Trump accuse NATO members of not paying?”, Trump noted: "I said, 'You didn't pay, you're delinquent [...] No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want.'"
The UK Guardian newspaper quoted the following
He (Trump) recounted a conversation with an unidentified NATO member in which he said, “You didn’t pay? You’re delinquent? No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.”
It is more than likely that the administration of Kamala Harris if she wins will take the same position as Trump in demanding that NATO and other US allies have to pay a great deal more to secure the ‘privilege’ of American protection.
G7 and NATO citizenry perhaps can console themselves that the insistence by the US that it will no longer be the major paymaster of NATO can have a positive counter effect on their foreign policy allegiance and dependence on the US. Should this happen, it may provide a first step to the end of the war in Ukraine and help bring genuine peace and security to the continent.
Asia- Pacific leaders should take notice too. What G7 and NATO members will have to deal with from financial year 2025 onwards will have to be reckoned for in the defence budgets in Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines where some of the over 750 military bases of the US around the world are located.
They will discover - as Australians are finding with AUKUS - that the price to pay for being deputy sheriff to the US will cost them and the coming generation a more than exorbitant monetary sum This does not include the consequences of being party to a war over which they will have no control and from which there will be no victors.
