最近美中在伦敦举行贸易谈判后，两国发表的官方声明中，明显未提及“稀土”这个敏感议题。
倒是美国总统特朗普透过社交媒体，总结美中这场马拉松式的两日会谈时，露了端倪。根据美国商务部长卢特尼克的说法，美中这场谈判旨在为早前日内瓦达成的初步协议“加点实质内容”，以期缓解特朗普政府对中国实施的高达三位数的关税。
伦敦会议一结束，特朗普便在Truth Social上发文，这段话主要是说给中国领导层听的：
“我们与中国的协议已经完成，仅待我与习主席最终批准。中国将直接供应磁铁与必要的稀土矿物。同样地，我们也将履行协议……双边关系极佳！感谢你们的关注！”
在美中首轮谈判会议中，双方同意在初步的90天期间内，大幅撤销彼此商品的关税。当时外界对此抱有乐观态度，认为这或可为由特朗普发起的关税战争带来至少一段短暂的停火期。然而，这种乐观情绪很快因两个关键问题而恶化──美国进一步升级封锁中国获取半导体技术的措施；以及中国作为报复，收紧对稀土矿产的出口管制。
稀土，是中国手中可能发挥决定性作用的一张王牌，不仅可能左右中美双方在一系列贸易与经济议题谈判中的结果，更可能成为中国在这场中美地缘政治竞争中，乃至面对与美国结盟的其他国家博奕中，最具战略意义与实质影响力的筹码。
稀土是中国战略优势
早在1992年，邓小平在视察中国最大的稀土矿区之一——内蒙古中西部包头时，就已深刻认识到稀土对中国的重要性，并留下了那句著名的话：“中东有石油，中国有稀土。”
这句话凸显了他对中国战略优势、以及未来经济与科技发展的远见。邓小平对稀土的看法，之后也获得历任中国领导人的延续与强化，尤其是在今天的国家主席习近平主政下更是如此。这一战略观点主要基于以下几个考量：
战略资源：邓小平将稀土视为与石油同等的关键资源，对国家发展与全球影响力具重大战略意义。
经济杠杆：邓小平认识到稀土对推动经济增长具有巨大潜力，并因其在先进技术中不可或缺的地位，使中国在国际贸易与谈判中拥有重要的谈判筹码。
科技进步：邓小平视稀土为发展高科技产业的关键资源，而这正是他现代化中国战略规划的核心之一。自那时以来，稀土已被广泛应用于众多现代技术领域，从电子产品（如智能手机、电脑）、清洁能源（如风力发电机、电动车），到国防系统（如导弹、精准制导武器）等，皆扮演不可或缺的角色。
储量优势：中国拥有全球大量稀土储量，具有天然优势。
邓小平的愿景是要充分利用这一天然资源优势，在全球稀土产业中取得领先地位──不仅仅是在开采方面，还包括加工与制造最终产品。
自那以来，中国在这方面的布局已经获得丰厚回报。中国的生产商拥有显著的成本优势，并几乎掌控了全球稀土加工产能。尽管目前中国仅掌握全球60%的稀土开采产量，但却控制了高达90%的加工产能，其中包括将稀土从其他矿物中分离出来的关键步骤。
此外，中国也几乎全面掌控了重稀土的供应，而这些重稀土对于高性能磁体及其他先进技术至关重要。
这些战略考量正越来越多地透过出口与许可管制来加以强化。近期的限制措施针对重稀土（如镝、铽）──这些对国防和绿色科技至关重要的元素──中国将此类管制表述为皆在环境、安全与经济利益之间取得平衡。
事实上，中国是在效法美国的做法。自2019年起，美国便以对华为与中兴的禁令为开端，陆续对中国的科技与企业施加一系列全面且日益升级的管制与禁令。这些措施打著国家安全的旗号，实则针对关键企业与产业领域，意在遏制中国的科技与经济发展，尤其是在那些具有潜在军事用途及战略经济价值的领域。
贸易武器化
在关税战爆发之前，中国对于美国及其盟友将贸易武器化以达成战略目标的回应，可视为谨慎且反应缓慢，主要是担心破坏与主要出口市场的经济关系。因此，中国强调其对出口的管理与措施完全遵循国际贸易规则与市场原则，体现了其在全球事务中负责任的态度。
中国也一再强调，它坚持开放合作与互利共赢的理念，其地缘战略始终遵循和平、发展、合作与互利的原则。
但如今，随著美国发动关税战及其他经济制裁与壁垒，彼此不再手下留情，中国若选择利用其在稀土产业的主导地位，作为对抗美国及其盟友更具威慑力的地缘政治工具，也就不足为奇了。
有句话说，在任何战争中，“数量本身就是一种质量”。而在稀土领域，中国兼具数量与品质。不过，中国仍然展现出耐心与克制。
林德宜《贸易战：中国可以稀土反击》原文：Trade War: China Can Retaliate With Its Rare Earths Card
The official statements from the United States and China that emerged from their trade talks in London recently were notable for the absence of direct mention to the rare earths issue.
It was left to President Donald Trump to articulate this in his social media platform where he provided his assessment of the two day marathon discussions designed, in the words of the U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, to put "meat on the bones" of the agreement reached in Geneva to ease triple digits tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on China.
Immediately following the end of the London meeting, Trump proclaimed on Truth Social in a message that was aimed more to the Chinese leadership than to his American audience:
In the first negotiation meeting, the two sides had agreed to drastically roll back tariffs on each other’s goods for an initial 90-day period. There was optimism that this could provide at least a truce to the tariff war begun by Trump. However, sentiment soured quickly over two sticking points - the U.S. ramping up further measures to block China's access to semiconductor technology; and China’s retaliation by tightening control over rare earths minerals.
Rare earths is the one card which China holds that may well prove to be decisive in not only determining the outcome of the negotiations over the wide range of trade and other economic issues being discussed between the two countries. It may also provide the most strategic and important tool for China to protect its position in the geopolitical rivalry between the two nations as well as with other nations that are allied with the U.S. anti China drive.
Rare Earths As China's Strategic Advantage
It was Deng Xiaoping who famously recognized the importance of rare earths to China, stating in 1992 during a visit to Baotou, one of China's largest rare earth mines, that "The Middle East has oil, China has rare earths."
This statement underscored his vision for China's strategic advantage and future economic and technological development. Deng's perspective on rare earths has since been reinforced by every Chinese leader after him, and especially by President Xi Jinping today. This perspective arises from the following considerations:
Strategic Resource: Deng viewed rare earths as a critical resource akin to oil through its strategic significance for national development and global influence.
Economic Leverage: He recognized their potential to drive economic growth and provide China with significant leverage in international trade and negotiations due to their indispensability in advanced technologies.
Technological Advancement: Deng saw rare earths as crucial for developing high-tech industries, which were central to his plans for modernizing China. Since his time, these minerals have been developed to become vital components in a vast array of modern technologies, from electronics (smartphones, computers) and clean energy (wind turbines, electric vehicles) to defense systems (missiles, precision-guided munitions).
Reserves: China possesses a significant portion of the world's rare earth reserves.
Deng's vision was to fully exploit this natural endowment to achieve a leading position in the global rare earth industry- not just in mining but also in processing and manufacturing finished products.
Since then, this investment has paid off with Chinese producers having a significant cost advantage and a near-monopoly on global rare earth processing capacity. For now, although China currently controls only 60% of global mining production, it has a 90% share of processing. This includes the crucial step of separating rare earths from other minerals.
Furthermore, China has near-total control over the supply of heavy rare earths vital for high-performance magnets and other advanced technologies.
These strategic considerations are increasingly being bolstered by export and licensing controls. Recent restrictions target heavy rare earths (e.g., dysprosium, terbium) critical for defense and green tech, and have been framed by China as balancing environmental, security and economic concerns.
In fact, China is following the example of the U.S. which, since 2019 beginning with the bans on Huawei and ZTE, has implemented a comprehensive and escalating series of controls and bans on Chinese technology and businesses. These measures under the guise of
national security concerns have targeted key businesses and sectors and are aimed at impeding China's technological and economic advancement, particularly in areas deemed to have potential military and strategic economic advantage.
Weaponization of Trade
Before the tariff war the Chinese response to the U.S. and allies weaponizing of trade for strategic goals can be assessed to be slow and ultra cautious for fear of disrupting the country’s economic relations with its major export markets. Thus China has pointed out that its management and utilization of exports strictly adhere to international trade rules and market principles and reflect the country's commitment to a responsible approach in global affairs.
China has also been at pains to emphasise that it upholds the concept of open cooperation and mutual benefit and that its geopolitical strategy is aligned with the principles of peace, development, cooperation, and mutual benefit.
Now that the gloves have come off with the launch of the tariff war and other forms of economic sanctions and barriers against it, it will not be surprising to see China leverage its dominant position in the rare earth industry so as to have an even more formidable geopolitical tool against the U.S. and its allies.
There is a truism that quantity has a quality of its own in any war. With rare earths, China has both quantity and quality. But it is exercising patience and restraint in exercising it.
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