长期以来，西方领导人和媒体都不会为难莫迪总理领导下的印度，他们更倾向于将注意力集中在中国的威胁和缺陷上，反而称赞印度是民主的堡垒和发展中国家的典范。
因此，莫迪自掌权以来的施政，尽管有著明显和令人不快的事实——即印度民主制度存在更严重的缺陷，无力解决暴力冲突、充满宗教与种族偏执、贫困和民众对社会经济处境不满，以及对非印度教少数群体的镇压加剧——都被一一忽视。这是为了拉拢印度作为超级大国盟友，以确保中国的崛起受到遏制、面对竞争，甚至被打倒。
最近国际关系中的大新闻就是加拿大总理特鲁多震惊各方的揭露印度特工涉及对加拿大公民尼贾尔（锡克教分裂主义领袖）的政治暗杀。
随著特鲁多声明，加拿大安全和情报机构正在“追查这项可信的指控……即印度政府特工”是6月在不列颠哥伦比亚省一名印度出生的加拿大公民遭暗杀的幕后黑手，印度立即将这一指控称为“荒谬”和具有“不良动机”。
特鲁多重申了这项指控，并强调在追查此案时，加拿大“是捍卫‘我们所认同的基于规则的国际秩序’的国家”。这“基于规则的国际秩序”也是美国在国际关系上，每当为制裁、干预或直接参与他国军事冲突时，提出的同样借口。
印度方面，除了正式否认涉及有关暗杀外，也诋毁了加拿大的声誉。印度外交部长发言人巴格奇就指加拿大“日益成为恐怖分子、极端分子和犯罪份子的避风港”，更反要求加拿大政府打击在加拿大活动的反印度组织。
在世界舞台上，美国是这场争端中，加印两国的最重要政治盟友——加拿大被一些人视为是美国小弟和跟班的小国；而印度则充满抱负要成为超级大国，美国就强调加拿大和印度两国需要就此案合作。美国国务卿布林肯在回答有关课题时表示：“我们希望看到问责制，重要的是调查要顺利进行并得出结果。”但美国绝对没打算让加拿大因此案而向印度施以惩罚。
责任和结果
关于此案调查，美国驻加拿大大使科恩表示，正是“五眼联盟伙伴之间的共享情报”让特鲁多得知印度特工可能参与了这起暗杀。美国、英国、加拿大、澳洲和纽西兰组成的五眼联盟，被形容为“人类历史上最全面的情报联盟之一”。
由于该联盟的主要目标是俄罗斯和中国，而印度则被美国国会情报和特种作战小组委员会定位为“应对（来自中国和俄罗斯）大国竞争”的潜在合作伙伴，因此可以肯定的是，特鲁多已经掌握了印度官方参与的证据。值得注意的是，“五眼联盟”其他国家，如英国和澳洲已表明正在密切关注事态发展，并与印度官员进行沟通。
显然，这就是世界可以预期的，对于莫迪领导下的印度黑暗面，西方所能追究的责任。
对特鲁多和莫迪来说，眼下的喧嚣和愤怒表演已经结束，双方将实现停火并逐步恢复正常关系。然而，他们的政治表演带来的成果却是截然不同的。
这一事件大大增强了莫迪的国内形象，有利于其个人和所领导的印度人民党在明年举行的州选举和大选中表现。
相反，特鲁多政治形象并没有从此事件获利，从民调结果来看，其的支持率反而大幅下降，依据民调机构益普索（IPSOS）在加拿大与印度对峙期间的一项调查显示，只有31%的加拿大人支持特鲁多，而40%的人则支持保守党领袖普瓦列弗尔。
最新事态发展清楚地表明，尽管特鲁多做出了指控，但其显然不愿继续追查此案，而进一步激怒莫迪和美国。在这种情况下，特鲁多快速的退缩和丢面的举动，似乎更好过于应对失去美国的支持，而可能会影响到他在加拿大的权力基础。
莫迪领导下的印度可能面临的变数是，在加拿大、澳洲和英国的锡克教徒侨民，以及印度本土锡克教徒社区的反应。锡克教徒不满情绪，在不同领域产生了连锁反应，包括从加拿大锡克人汇款到旁遮普邦的数目；社区归属感和忠诚度；最关键的是锡克教徒试图在旁遮普邦建立起以锡克人为主，名为“卡利斯坦”民族宗教国家的斗争。这场斗争在20世纪80年代和90年代导致数万人死亡，最终被印度镇压下来。如今，这场独立运动又获得了新的、不可预测的动力。
五眼联盟成员肯定会关注这场争议的进展。他们也将在幕后积极参与，掩盖印度的涉及举动。这将确保印度，无论其未能遵守西方版本的基于规则的国际秩序，仍然是西方印太战略的核心，以维持西方主导地位并打倒中国。
林德宜《莫迪领导印度下阴暗面》原文：Modi's India Darker Side
For a long time, leaders and media from the West have given Prime Minister Modi’s India an easy time or pass preferring to focus attention on the threat and deficiencies of China while lauding India as a bastion of democracy and model for the developing world.
Thus the glaring reality and inconvenient facts of Modi’s governance since accession to power - a more deeply flawed democracy, an inability to tackle endermic violence, bigotry, poverty and socio-economic discontent, and heightening repression against non-Hindu minorities - have been ignored. This is to recruit India as a superpower ally to ensure that the rise of China is contained, contested and brought down.
The recent big story in international relations was the sensational revelation by Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau that Indian operatives were involved in the political assassination of Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Niijar.
Following Trudeau’s announcement that Canadian security and intelligence agencies are “pursuing credible allegations [that] … agents of the Government of India” were behind the assassination of an Indian-born Canadian citizen in British Columbia last June, India immediately labelled the charge as “absurd” and “motivated”.
Trudeau has repeated the charge and emphasised that in pursuing the case, Canada “is the country standing up for the "rules based international order that we believe in". This is the same ‘rules based international order’ than the US trumpets in its international relations whenever it is looking for an excuse for sanctions, intervention or engaging in outright military conflict.
On the Indian side, besides the official response of denial and non complicity there has been an accompanying disparaging description of Canada, by Foreign Minister spokesman, Arindam Bagchi, about its “growing reputation as a place, as a safe haven for terrorists, for extremists, and for organized crime”, and a counter demand that the Canadian government cracks down on anti-India groups operating from Canada.
The US, the most important player in this row between its two political allies on the world stage - Canada, a minor power seen by some as a US lackey and doormat; and India, an aspiring superpower - has emphasised the need for the two countries to work together on the case. In response to a question about the issue, US Secretary of State, Blinken, said: "We want to see accountability, and it's important that the investigation run its course and lead to that result." But the US is definitely not intending for Canada to penalize India in any way in this particular case.
Accountability and Outcomes
On the investigation itself, according to US Ambassador to Canada David Cohen, it was "shared intelligence among Five Eyes partners" which informed Trudeau of the possible involvement of Indian agents in the murder. The Five Eyes network of the US., Britain, Canada, Australia and New Zealand has been described as “one of the most comprehensive known espionage alliances in human history”.
With the network’s main target clearly Russia and China and with India identified by US Congress’ Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations as a potential partner to work with in “confronting great power competition [from China and Russia]”, it is certain that Trudeau has evidence on Indian official involvement. Noteworthy too is that the Five Eyes countries of the UK and Australia have said they are monitoring the situation and communicating with Indian officials.
Clearly, this is all the accountability that the world can expect from the West in response to Modi’s India’s dark side.
The Sound and Fury Show Is Now Over
For Trudeau and Modi now that the immediate sound and fury show is over, there is a ceasefire and gradual return to normal relations. However, the outcomes for their respective political standings are quite different.
Modi’s domestic image has been considerably strengthened by this particular episode and should stand him and his BJP party well in the state elections and Indian general election due next year.
Trudeau, on the other hand, has not benefited from the entanglement with polls showing a plunge in his popularity, and an IPSOS survey amidst the Indian standoff revealing that only 31 percent of Canadians now prefer him as their leader, while 40 per cent are in favour of the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre.
The latest developments clearly show that Trudean is unwilling to further antagonise Modi and the US by pursuing the case despite his initial pronouncement. A hasty retreat and loss of face for Trudeau in this instance appears easier to deal with losing the support of the US which may affect his power base in Canada.
The wild card for Modi’s India is the impact on the Sikh diaspora in Canada, Australia and the UK, and the Sikh community in India itself. The discord and tensions have had ripple effects in disparate areas including remittances from Canada to Punjab; community sense of belonging and loyalties; and most importantly on the Sikh struggle for a separate ethno-religious homeland of Khalistan. That struggle killed tens of thousands in the 1980s and '90s, and was eventually crushed. Today the independence drive has been provided with a renewed and unpredictable impetus.
The Five Eyes members will definitely be monitoring developments in this controversy. They will also be actively involved in behind the scene efforts to cover up Indian involvement. This will ensure that India, whatever its failure in abiding by the western version of a rules based international order, remains the centrepiece of their Indo Pacific strategy to maintain western dominance and bring down China.
