“是的，我知道年龄是一个受（选民）关注的合理问题。这是每个人心中的话题……他们说我‘古老’。”这是美国总统拜登在一场活动上如此表示。
美国总统拜登在东京参加G7峰会后直接返回华盛顿，就美国债务上限危机展开谈判一事，引发了人们对他的年老，身体和精神衰老的关注，尤其美国下届总统选举日益迫近，这成了美国选民当下最关心的问题。
拜登的原本的计划是出席东京会议后，前往巴布亚新几内亚的莫尔兹比港，与印度总理莫迪一起会晤太平洋岛国的领导人；然后再到澳洲参加四方安全对话（QUAD）——这是盎格鲁美国企图主导并告诉亚洲人，如何维护亚洲利益。
这样的头条新闻和上报机会，本是拜登在即将到来的总统选举前，吹嘘他的外交政策成功的绝佳机会。但显然其团队认为，在应对国会正在进行的债务上限危机之际，拜登无法连续出访。
实际上，债务上限解决方案的截止日期，不是迫在眉睫，而是落在6月1日——这表明拜登的团队对其东京之行后身体状况没有信心，更担忧拜登在莫尔兹比港和澳洲的笨拙举动，会进一步打击美国和总统的威信。
因此，美国取消拜登莫尔兹比港和澳洲之行，是美国今年在印太地区最大的外交失败。这也引发了一个疑问，作为美国代理人的国家是否能挺起腰杆，支持致力于亚太地区真正和平与稳定的自由和独立外交政策。
在这之前，巴布亚新几内亚和澳洲对拜登的到访赞不绝口。巴布亚新几内亚总理马拉佩形容为“历史性的首次”，全球超级大国在太平洋最大的国家进行“前瞻性”会面。
可是，在他的脸书帖子中没有提及的是，尽管中国以其方式崛起为一个超级强国，但并未受邀出席，却成为美国和印度关注的主要目标。
显然，拜登和莫迪原订在巴布亚新几内亚的会面，将中国视为要遏制的敌人，并通过与14个太平洋岛国领导人达成新的军事、贸易和外交协议来遏制中国。美国给这些小岛国的诱饵，可能也包括印度提供的，是数十亿美元的外援，尽管主要是用于购买美国军事装备和软件。印度则提供这些岛国领导人的差旅费用作为额外诱饵。
澳洲不满
对于澳洲，总理阿尔巴尼斯原计划让拜登在澳洲国会发表演说。拜登突然宣布缩短行程的消息引发了澳洲政界左翼、右翼和中间派的反弹。
中间派人士，如前澳洲外交部长鲍勃·卡尔表示：“这表明‘澳洲对美国这个伙伴抱有巨大的轻信和乐观心态’。”“像附庸国一样行事，就得到像附庸国一样的对待。”
澳洲评论员孟雅途就质问：“QUAD会议会否像当年东南亚条约组织（SEATO）一样走向无关紧要吗？”他说：“拜登总统未能参加悉尼的QUAD会议传达出一种奇怪的讯息。但至少没机会宣布在澳洲建立新的用于攻击中国的美国基地。”
右派如《澳洲人报》的专栏作家彼得·詹宁斯则将拜登取消访澳与阿尔巴尼斯政府没有令人眼前一亮的国防采购联系在一起。“当其他优先事项紧迫时，澳洲之行肯定不会获得美国总统青睐。”
这名右翼份子认为，由澳洲纳税人来承担的3600亿澳元（1.08兆令吉）澳美英潜艇项目，还不足于让澳洲成为美国的附庸国！
巴布亚新几内亚的博主和政治人物马丁·纳莫隆则写道：“我们甚至为拜登的历史性访问宣布了公假，结果却被美国耍了一轮……美国在维护其本地区地位时，不断搬石头砸自己的脚。”
美国前助理国务卿丹尼尔·拉塞尔表示：“华盛顿的政治两极化，无疑是自毁美国在太平洋地区力量，也对美国作为伙伴的可靠性产生负面影响。”
美国这一轮外交之行，目标并非是为了寻求区域的和平、稳定和安全，也不是为了帮助受到气候变化冲击、面对著环境、就业、基础设施和服务需求不足，以及其他国内问题影响的太平洋岛国。
加强反中
这次美国的目的是要加强对中国的军事包围。这目标是在现有对中国起作围堵作用的100多个美国军事基地基础上，通过经济手段来削弱中国与太平洋岛国及亚洲其他国家的关系和联系。美国将中国影响力称之为“经济胁迫”。
太平洋岛国能否阻挡他们邻近地区的这场新冷战？一位敏锐的太平洋岛国非政府组织领导人警告说：
在美国挑起对中国的任何战争中，各方都无法预测结果……太平洋岛国领导人及其人民必须清醒地认识到，这不仅危及他们的安全，还很可能摧毁他们现有的生活……
在美国及其盟友的计算中，这些岛国和岛民是可以牺牲的。由美国策划并得到澳洲、日本、韩国、印度和菲律宾等傀儡国家支持的与中国的核战争将对太平洋岛国带来可怕的后果。
被澳洲和印度这样的前殖民地牵著鼻子走，与数千英里外的国家作战，既不是明智的外交政策，也不是明智的对外政策。
詹姆斯·安东尼，“太平洋国家将自己沦为美国‘马前卒’吗？” 2023年5月10日，《珍珠与激情》
太平洋岛国应该向东盟国家学习。东盟成员国（可能除了小马科斯领导下的菲律宾政府）尽管在南中国海课题上与中国有长期纠纷，仍然拒绝成为美国/澳洲国际棋局中的马前卒。
1971年，东盟成员国签署了打造东南亚为“和平、自由和中立区”（ZOPFAN）的宣言。1991年，东盟成员国又通过了曼谷条约，承诺维护东南亚地区为一个无核和其他大规模杀伤性武器的自由地区。
东盟拒绝卷入美国和澳洲通过军事和经济胁迫来削弱中国的计划，可以做为太平洋岛国借镜。
林德宜《美国失手太平洋 》原文：US Bungles in Pacific Waters
“Look, I get that age is a completely reasonable issue. It’s in everybody’s mind and by everyone” “They say I am ancient.”https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/apr/30/
News that Biden has proceeded straight back to Washington following the G7 meeting in Tokyo raises questions about his old age, and physical and mental weaknesses - concerns now uppermost in the minds of the American electorate as the spotlight turns to the US presidential race.
The initial plan was for the US President to continue from Tokyo to Port Moresby to meet with leaders from the Pacific islands with Prime Minister Modi in tow; and then to go on to Australia for a QUAD meeting - the latest in Anglo American attempts to assert dominance and to tell Asians what is really best in their own part of the world and interests.
The headline news and photo opportunities of this happening was a golden opportunity for Biden to boast of his foreign policy success ahead of the looming presidential election. But his team has decided that Biden cannot cope with the back to back travel meetings amidst the ongoing debt ceiling negotiations in Congress.
The fact that the deadline for the ceiling level resolution is quite far away - 1 June - shows how little confidence Biden’s handlers have in his ability to recover from the Tokyo meeting and their fear that his bungling in Port Moresby and Australia will make the US president and leadership look even worse than what the conservative mainstream media makes out.
US Deputy Sheriffs in Asia and Pacific
Meantime, cancellation of the Port Moresby and Australian meetings has resulted in the biggest Indo Pacific diplomatic fiasco of the year. It also raises questions whether nations acting as American deputy sheriffs can grow backbones to support free and independent foreign policies dedicated to genuine peace and stability for the Asia Pacific region.
Both Papua New Guinea and Australian hosts had waxed lyrical about the visit by Biden. PNG Prime Minister James Marape had described it as “a historic first’, and ‘going forward’ futuristic meeting of global superpowers, in the biggest country in the Pacific”.
Missing from mention in his Facebook posting was the fact that China, though a superpower in its own way, was not invited but was to be the main target of concern for the US and India.
Clearly the PNG meeting for Biden and Modi had China as the enemy in mind to be contained by new military, trade and diplomatic agreements struck with the 14 Pacific island leaders there. The US carrot dangled to the small islands, and possibly India too, was billions in foreign aid, though mainly for defence procurement of US military hardware and software. A mini carrot was already assured as the small change travel costs of the island leaders was to be provided by India.
As for Australia, Prime Minister Albanese had plans for Biden to address a joint session of the Australian Parliament. The last minute announcement that Biden was cutting his trip short prompted an outpouring of negative sentiment from left, right and center wings of the Australian political divide.
From the center, former foreign minister Bob Carr said it showed that “Australians have been enormously gullible and optimistic about our American partner”. “Act like a client state, get treated like one."
From John Menadue,”Will the QUAD go the same way as SEATO and just become irrelevant?”: “President Biden sends an odd message in being unable to attend the QUAD meeting in Sydney. But at least there will be no opportunity to announce new US bases to attack China from Australia.”
From the right, The Australian columnist Peter Jennings linked the decision to what he regards as the Albanese government’s lacklustre defence funding. “That type of complacency garners no presidential visits when other priorities are pressing.”
The right wing thinks that the A$360 billion for the AUKUS submarines is not enough for Aussie taxpayers to cough out as a US client state!
"We even declared a national public holiday for Biden’s historic visit only to be thrown under the bus by the US,” wrote Martyn Namorong, a PNG blogger and political activist. “The US keeps shooting itself in the foot as it stumbles to maintain its grip in the region."
"It will be seen in the region as a self-inflicted wound caused by political polarisation in Washington that does not reflect well on America’s reliability as a partner,” said Daniel Russel, a former US assistant secretary of state for east Asian and Pacific affairs.
What the US-Australia-QUAD-Pacific Island Diplomacy is About
This current round of diplomacy is not aimed at peace, stability and security. Nor is it intended to assist the island nations affected by climate change, environmental problems, employment, infrastructure and services needs, and other domestic priorities.
It is to reinforce the military encirclement of China. This objective to strengthen the existing noose of over 100 US military bases around China is being complemented with economic measures aimed at curbing China’s relations and links with the island countries and other countries in Asia. This is "economic coercion", the US variety.
Can the Pacific islands resist this new cold war in their neighbourhood? An astute Pacific islander NGO leader has warned
In any US-instigated war with China, all bets are off for all parties …. Island leaders and their people must wake up to the reality of intended and unintended consequences that will not just imperil their security but is also likely to eviscerate their present life ….
In the calculus of the US and its allies …the islands and islanders are dispensable. A nuclear war with China engineered by the US and supported by supine nations like Australia, Japan, South Korea, India, and the Philippines will have horrific consequences for the Pacific islands.
Being led by the nose by warmed-over former colonies like Australia and India to fight a country thousands of miles away is neither smart diplomacy nor smart foreign policy.
James Anthony, Are Pacific nations setting themselves up as US ‘pawn sacrifices’ ? May 10, 2023, Pearls and Irritation
ASEAN Foreign Policy Positioning
Pacific island nations would do well to learn from ASEAN nations. The member countries (with the possible exception of the new Philippines government under Marcos) - and despite various longstanding issues with China in the South China Sea - continue to refuse to become sacrificial pawns in the US/Australia chessboard game.
ASEAN member states in 1971 signed a declaration on the establishment of a zone of peace, freedom and neutrality (ZOPFAN) for the region. This has been supplemented in 1991 by the Bangkok Treaty with its commitment to preserve the Southeast Asian region as a region free of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction.
ASEAN’s refusal to be drawn into US and Australian plans to cripple China through new strategies of military and economic coercion can serve as a model for Pacific replication.
