伊朗如今正对美国总统特朗普步步进逼，而特朗普正试图避免美国对伊朗的战争演变成一场由自己造成的灾难。根据国营伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社的报导，伊朗最高国家安全委员会秘书祖尔卡德尔表示：“在美国纠正其行为之前，霍尔木兹海峡不会开放。”要求霍尔木兹海峡以和平方式、并按照伊朗自身条件重新开放，只是伊朗所坚持的第一项纠正措施。
祖尔卡德尔表示，美国必须停止威胁伊朗，以及停止侮辱他所称的伊朗国家神圣事物；停止对伊朗及其在黎巴嫩、巴勒斯坦地区、叶门和伊拉克的盟友采取军事行动，并解除海上封锁。他的要求还包括美国海空军撤出伊朗、就两场战争造成的损失进行赔偿、解除对伊朗的制裁，以及无条件解冻伊朗遭冻结的资产。
特朗普日益缩减的选项
甚至在伊朗公布这份最新要求之前，美国对伊政策的批评者便已指出，特朗普强硬的“极限施压”策略与军事介入，虽然一度带来短暂的亢奋情绪，但与其说这是一场迅速而决定性的胜利，不如说是一个战略与政治陷阱。
这样的说法，其实已经太客气了。这个陷阱很可能演变成美国近十年来最大的地缘政治失利，同时也可能对特朗普及共和党在即将到来的11月中期选举的政治前景构成威胁。
美国政策主要缺陷包括：
1.战略目标与手段错位
目标不断转移：作战目标在多个彼此并不一致的方向之间不断转移——从要求伊朗实施“零浓缩”核限制，到摧毁飞弹基础设施、切断代理人支持，甚至间接鼓励伊朗政权崩溃。
伊朗承受压力下的韧性：尽管美以空袭对伊朗实体设施以及遭到锁定的领导层造成严重破坏，但情报及国际评估显示，空袭仅让伊朗核心浓缩能力延后数个月，而未能彻底摧毁这项能力。
非对称能力持续存在：打击了伊朗高端常规军备，并没有消除其以低成本干扰霍尔木兹海峡海上交通的能力，反而迫使美国陷入一项没有明确期限且代价高昂的承诺——持续维持在该地区的空中与海上优势。
2.海上与经济反噬
战略咽喉受阻：伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡的报复行动与威胁姿态扰乱了能源贸易，导致全球油价以及货运保险费率大幅上升。
国内通膨外溢：能源成本上升直接削弱了美国在进入中期选举周期之际的国内经济调控与政策宣传，使原本的外交政策操作转变成直接由消费者承担的经济负担。单是这一点，就已成为特朗普外交政策的致命点，也可能成为对其“让美国再次伟大”议程的致命打击。
3.升级陷阱与盟友关系紧张
地区动荡：伊朗对波斯湾美国盟友物流枢纽与能源基础设施的反击行动，使美国在该区域重要盟友对美国有所疏远，也加重这些国家的负担，更增加了美军伤亡人数。
外交孤立：美国单方面的军事行动，以及将盟友排除在高层谈判之外，削弱了国际共识，使制裁的执行更加依赖美国的强制手段，而非多边合作。
特朗普寻求政治与战略解套的选项
为了避免伊朗战争的连锁效应，以及11月中期选举所带来的风险，我们已看到特朗普政府重新塑造相关叙事，并急切寻找政策出路，以降低敌对程度，并争取一个在政治上站得住脚、同时能被美国民众接受的结果。
目前，重新塑造战略叙事主要集中在以下两个方向：
宣布“削弱任务完成”：将对飞弹基地及核设施的战术性摧毁描述为原先规划好的军事任务已成功完成，以此为立即缩减军事部署提供正当性。
经济转向：将国内政策宣传的焦点从“改变外国政权”转向降低能源价格，并宣称美国的军事行动成功迫使德黑兰重返谈判桌。
这些做法是否足以应对战争鹰派与和平鸽派在中期选举前提出的批评，仍有待观察。但就目前而言，几乎毫无疑问的是，在即将展开、极其重要的和平协议谈判中，伊朗掌握了较大的主动权。
从分析与军事战略的角度来看，美国政府与军方必须面对以下几项关键的政治与战略结果。
1.伊朗的结构性韧性
尽管遭受密集空袭，以及针对军事与政治领导层的高强度打击，伊朗政府与国家体制仍然存续，并未出现系统性崩溃。德黑兰也成功执行了预先规划、高度分散化的指挥与控制战略。透过将决策权分散至各地区作战群，伊朗军方证明了国家的持续运作并不依赖单一的中央指挥节点。
2.对全球市场与海上战略咽喉的战略杠杆
由于无法在常规空中力量方面与美国及以色列匹敌，伊朗成功将冲突的主要战场从本国境内转移至境外，并延伸至全球经济体系。透过利用自身在霍尔木兹海峡沿岸的战略位置，伊朗已将这个地理上的战略咽喉转化为当前谈判中的高价值筹码。
3.远程非对称打击下生存能力
伊朗过去投入不少资源于建设深埋地下、经过强化的地下洞穴，使其即使失去部分地面常规军事装备，仍能保有可投入作战的弹道飞弹、巡弋飞弹以及远程攻击无人机库存。与此同时，尽管面对敌方电子战以及干扰GPS定位的行动，伊朗仍然有反击的运作能力。
相比之下，美国的远程飞弹与拦截飞弹消耗如此严重，以至于美军领导层已不鼓励进一步采取动能军事行动。
4.对区域能源与经济枢纽施加横向成本压力
伊朗成功扩大冲突的影响范围，也凸显邻近波斯湾国家关键基础设施的脆弱性。这些基础设施包括能源出口码头、海水淡化设施、数码基础设施以及物流枢纽。
伊朗借此证明，波斯湾经济体在战争持续期间无法维持不间断的高科技商业运作，从而促使邻近阿拉伯国家将降低冲突、区域外交与保持中立置于优先位置，而不是公开加入反伊朗军事联盟。
结论
特朗普是否有能力或意愿采取更多军事行动，使伊朗政府与军方彻底屈服，仍有待观察；但德黑兰已成功将外国军事打击转化为一场强大的国内及国际“反帝国主义抵抗与领土防卫”叙事，进一步巩固了保守派核心以及基层民众对政府的支持。
这意味著，任何长期解决方案或安全协议，都必须建立在平等条件之上。这将有助于伊朗捍卫主权权利与自身能力，并逼使制裁解除，而不是照单全收美国未来可能强加的任何条件。
林德宜《特朗普的难题：如何从伊朗战争败局中宣称胜利》原文：Trump’s Challenge: How To Claim Victory From His Iran War Debacle
Iran is now tightening the screws on President Donald Trump as he seeks to avoid a self-inflicted debacle in the United States war against Iran. According to the country’s state-run IRNA news agency, Mohammad Baqer Zulqader, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, “until America corrects its behavior, The Strait of Hormuz will not open.”
Allowing the Strait to reopen peacefully and on its own terms is just the first corrective measure Iran is insisting on.
Zulqader said that the U.S. must stop threatening Iran and insulting what he described as the country's sanctities, end military action against Iran and its allies in Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Yemen and Iraq, and lift the naval blockade.
His demands also call for U.S. sea and air forces to withdraw from Iran, compensation for damages from two wars, the removal of sanctions against Iran and the unconditional release of frozen Iranian assets.
Trump’s Diminished Options
Even before the pronouncement of this list of latest Iranian demands, critics of America’s Iran policy have noted that Trump’s aggressive "maximum pressure" strategy and military intervention produced temporary euphoria but has been a strategic and political trap rather than a swift, decisive victory.
They were too kind. This trap could well result in the biggest geopolitical setback for the United States for this decade as well as may be a domestic threat to Trump’s and the Republican party’s fortunes in the coming November elections.
Critical shortcomings in American policy have included:
1. Strategic Misalignment of Ends and Means
Shifting Objectives: Operational goals drifted across multiple non-congruent targets—from enforcing zero-enrichment nuclear limits to destroying missile infrastructure, severing proxy support, and implicitly encouraging regime collapse.
Resilience Under Pressure: Despite severe damage to physical facilities and leadership targeted in the U.S.-Israeli strikes, intelligence and international assessments indicate that air strikes delayed core enrichment capacity by only months rather than dismantling it outright.
Asymmetric Persistence: Depriving Iran of high-end conventional assets did not remove its low-cost ability to disrupt maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, forcing the U.S. into an indefinite, expensive commitment to maintain regional air and naval superiority.
2. Maritime and Economic Backlash
Chokepoint Disruption: Iranian retaliation and threat posture in the Strait have disrupted energy trade, triggering spikes in global oil prices and freight insurance rates.
Domestic Inflationary Spillovers: Rising energy costs have directly undermined domestic economic massaging and messaging heading into the midterm cycle, turning a foreign policy maneuver into a consumer-facing economic liability. This alone has become the Achilles heel of Trump’s foreign policy and possibly also a decisive blow against his MAGA agenda.
3. Escalation Trap and Alliance Strain
Regional Disruption: Counterstrikes targeting logistics hubs and energy infrastructure across Persian Gulf states have alienated key regional allies, burdening host nations and increased U.S. casualty counts.
Diplomatic Isolation: Unilateral military moves and the exclusion of allies from high-level talks have weakened international consensus, making sanctions enforcement more reliant on U.S. coercion than multilateral cooperation.
Trump’s Options for Political and Strategic Relief
To avoid the Iran war’s ripple effect and midterm November risks, we have seen the Trump administration reframe the narrative and engage frantically in search of policy pathways to de-escalate hostilities and secure a politically defensible outcome palatable to the American public.
Reframing Strategy is now focusing on the following:
Declare "Degradation Complete": Frame the tactical destruction of missile sites and nuclear infrastructure as the pre-planned, successful completion of the military mission, justifying an immediate drawdown.
Economic Pivot: Recenter domestic messaging away from foreign regime transformation and toward lower energy prices, claiming that American military action successfully forced Tehran back to the bargaining table.
Whether this may be sufficient to address the criticism from war hawks and peace doves going into the midterm remains to be seen.
For now, there is little doubt that Iran has the upper hand going into the all important peace agreement negotiations ahead.
From an analytical and military-strategic standpoint, the U.S. administration and military have to contend with these key political and strategic outcomes.
1. Iran’s Structural Resilience
Despite intensive air campaigns and high-profile strikes against military and political leadership, Iran’s central government and state system have survived without systemic collapse.
Tehran has also successfully executed a pre-planned, highly decentralized command-and-control doctrine. By distributing decision-making across regional operational groups, the military demonstrated that state continuity does not depend on a single centralized command node.
2. Strategic Leverage Over Global Markets and Maritime Chokepoints
Unable to match the U.S. and Israel in conventional air power, Iran successfully moved the conflict’s primary battleground outside its borders and into global economic systems.
By leveraging its position along the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s capability has turned a geographic chokepoint into a high-value bargaining chip in the current negotiations.
3. Survivability of Long-Range Asymmetric Strike Assets
Prior investments in deeply buried, hardened underground caverns ensured that despite losing conventional surface assets, Iran maintained operational stockpiles of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and long-range strike drones. At the same time, Iranian strike vectors have remained operational despite adversarial electronic warfare and GPS denial efforts. In contrast, American long range and interceptor missiles have been so depleted that US military leaders have discouraged further kinetic activity.
4. Horizontal Cost-Imposition on Regional Energy and Economic Hubs
Iran successfully widened the scope of the conflict to highlight the vulnerability of key infrastructure in the neighboring Persian Gulf states. These include energy export terminals, desalination facilities, digital infrastructure, and logistics hubs. By demonstrating that Gulf economies cannot maintain uninterrupted, high-tech business operations during an active war, Iran incentivized neighboring Arab states to prioritize de-escalation, regional diplomacy, and neutrality over open integration into anti-Iran military coalitions.
Conclusion
While it remains to be seen whether Trump may be able or willing to engage in even more military action to bring the Iranian government and military to its knees, Tehran has converted foreign military strikes into a powerful domestic, and international, saga of anti-imperial resistance and territorial defense, consolidating support among its conservative core and active grassroots networks.
What this signifies is that any long-term resolution or security agreement must take place on equal terms. This is likely to ensure the preservation of Iran’s sovereign rights and capabilities, and bring about sanction relief rather than mirror whatever dictated terms are forthcoming from the U.S.
本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。
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