摩洛哥大批民众试图涌入西班牙海外属地休达（Ceuta），希望借此进入西班牙的画面与报导，近日登上全球各大媒体头条，尤其是在西方世界，甚至一度盖过美国总统特朗普对伊朗战争的新闻。
然而，相较于地缘政治危机主导新闻周期，国际移民现象才是这些震撼照片与影片背后真正的结构性背景。它已成为塑造西方国家——特别是北美与西欧，同时也包括亚洲部分地区如马来西亚——政治、经济与社会发展的重要挑战。这股趋势很可能成为整个21世纪，甚至更长时间内的重要全球课题。
人类历史自诞生以来便伴随著人口迁徙，但今日的移民潮与过去截然不同。近年的跨境流动主要由非正规与非法移民所构成，包括非法越境、逾期居留，以及因庇护申请积压而滞留的人群。这些现象日益加剧，并深刻改变移民目的国的政治版图。
摩洛哥此次大规模移民事件终将淡出新闻焦点，但这股最新的人口流动不但不会减弱，反而极可能进一步升温。
过去十年（2015—2025）的移民概况
根据联合国经济与社会事务部、联合国难民署及经济合作暨发展组织的统计，全球人口流动在规模与趋势上均持续攀升。
全球移民人口持续增加：截至2025年，全球国际移民人口约达3.04亿人，较2020年的2.75亿及2015年的2.46亿明显增加，目前约占全球总人口的3.7%。
移民主要集中于西方国家：欧洲与北美仍是全球最主要的移民目的地，合共容纳约1.55亿名国际移民，占全球总数约51%。其中，美国接纳超过5200万名移民，而德国、英国、法国及西班牙等西欧主要经济体也各自容纳数以千万计的移民人口。
非法移民与庇护申请激增：过去十年间，由于中东、撒哈拉以南非洲及南亚长期冲突持续，全球被迫流离失所人口急剧增加。截至2025年底，相关人数已达1.178亿人。2022年至2025年间，西方国家的庇护申请数量屡创历史新高。联合国难民署资料显示，全球等待最终审核的庇护申请约有900万宗，其中相当比例是在非法进入欧盟或美国后提出申请。
另一方面，美国南部边境于2020年代初至中期，每年有超过200万宗非法越境事件，创下数十年新高；欧盟的地中海及巴尔干路线，每年亦录得数十万宗非法入境个案。
未来十年（2026—2035）的趋势
国际机构根据人口、经济及气候模型预测，未来十年全球移民压力将持续累积。
人口与经济失衡持续扩大：撒哈拉以南非洲以及南亚部分地区，尤其印度与巴基斯坦，青年人口快速增长；反观西方国家则面临人口老化、劳动力萎缩等问题。联合国人口预测指出，到2035年前，全球新增劳动人口几乎全部来自全球南方国家。
气候变迁加剧人口流离失所：根据境内流离失所监测中心（IDMC）及多项气候安全模型，环境恶化、水资源短缺及极端天气将令数以千万计人口被迫迁徙。虽然大部分属于境内流离失所，但其中部分人口最终仍将跨越国界，前往西方国家寻求生计。
各国政策将更趋强硬：在财政及政治压力下，预计至2030年代中期，各主要移民目的国将持续收紧边境管制，包括加强边境执法；将庇护审查中心设于第三国；与过境国签署双边遏制移民协议。因此，非法移民将更可能转向风险更高、更隐密的偷渡路线，除非各国能大幅重建合法移民机制，特别是劳工移民制度。
对西方政治的深远影响
合法移民与非法移民问题的交织，已不再只是社会经济政策上的争议，而是日益成为左右西方选举政治的核心议题。
右翼与民族主义崛起：民众普遍认为边境失控、地方政府公共服务不堪负荷，使法国、德国、荷兰、意大利、西班牙，以及美洲部分国家的右翼与民族主义政党支持度迅速上升。移民政策的重要性甚至超越传统经济议题，重新塑造西方政党政治版图。
中间偏左政党共识瓦解：长期以来相对支持移民政策的中间偏左政党，在近年选举中付出沉重政治代价。因此，即使是传统自由派民主国家，也普遍朝向更严格的边境管理、更快速遣返非法移民，以及提高庇护申请门槛。
公共资源与社会凝聚力承受巨大压力：大量移民涌入主要城市，使公共教育、平价住宅及全民医疗系统承受巨大压力。欧洲公共医疗体系及北美地方政府皆面对沉重负担，也进一步激化社会对文化融合、身份认同及国家认同的争论。
外交政策日益服务于移民管控：西方国家对发展中国家的外交政策，也愈来愈服从于移民管理目标。援助资金、贸易优惠及外交合作，往往成为迫使原籍国及过境国阻止非法移民外流的重要工具。
被忽视的历史之手
西方主流媒体及政策圈普遍忽略殖民历史及后殖民时代军事干预，在今日全球移民潮中所扮演的系统性角色，反映出其对移民问题存在根本性的盲点。当前大量报导往往将移民危机简化为边境执法失败或地方治理问题，而忽略其深层历史与结构性根源。
事实上，今日大量来自发展中国家的移民潮，很大程度上源自殖民时代遗留下来的人口流动模式，以及西方主导的地缘政治冲突。
殖民时代建立的人力流动网络：欧洲殖民帝国所建立的行政体系与劳工输送制度，塑造了亚洲、非洲、拉丁美洲及太平洋地区向英国、法国、荷兰及比利时等宗主国的人口流动。
帝国遗产仍深刻影响今日移民模式：无论合法或非法移民，今日的人口流动仍深受殖民帝国留下的制度与社会联系影响，尤其在南亚及非洲国家。
政权更迭造成的权力真空：亚洲、非洲及中东多国政府因直接军事干预、代理人战争或秘密行动而遭推翻或陷入失序，使原本维持国内稳定及区域安全的国家机器瓦解。二战后，美国在东南亚发动的战争便造成庞大的难民危机。1975年至1995年间，超过300万人流离失所，其中约250万人在世界各地重新安置，超过100万人移居美国。
根据美国布朗大学“战争成本计画”（Costs of War Project）的统计，美国自“911事件”后发动或参与的战争，至少造成3800万人被迫流离失所，为1900年以来除第二次世界大战外最大规模的人口流离失所事件。
生计遭到摧毁：经济封锁、制裁及长期冲突——尤其是由西方国家主导或大力支持的行动——破坏了当地经济、摧毁关键民用基础设施，也使人民失去可持续生计。原本具备发展潜力的社会逐渐沦为长期动荡地区，进一步推高移民外流的压力。
结论
在可预见的未来，西方国家将更加依赖双边协议及财政援助，以管理殖民与后殖民时代所遗留下来的移民压力。
其目的在于将原本属于全球或跨洲的危机，转移至特定地缘政治断层带，并把人口流动视为外交博弈与国家战略工具，而非真正处理近代干预主义外交政策、人口结构失衡及经济发展不均等根本原因。
就非洲而言，乃至整个发展中国家，唯有建立自主且可持续的经济发展模式，才能真正减少非法移民的持续外流。
然而，欧洲及欧盟至今对此所提供的援助，不仅成效有限，更远不足以弥补其长期以来对非洲资源掠夺与殖民统治所留下的历史欠债。
林德宜《摩洛哥移民潮：为何不会停止》原文：The Moroccan Surge: Why It Will Not Stop
Images and coverage of Moroccan would-be migrants pouring into Ceuta in a bid to reach Spain made headline news all round the world, especially in the West, displacing news on President Donald Trump’s war against Iran. While geopolitical crises dominates news cycles, the phenomenon of international migration which provides the explanatory backdrop for the dramatic photos and videos in Ceuta is an existential challenge shaping the political and socioeconomic landscapes of host nations across the West - primarily in North America and Western Europe, and also in parts of Asia, including Malaysia. This global reality is likely to remain a defining one for the 21st century, and possibly beyond.
Migration flows have characterised human societies since our earliest days but today’s migration flows are different. The latest activity is marked by irregular and illegal migration. Comprising unauthorized border crossings, visa overstays, and asylum-seeking backlogs, it has intensified, reshaping the political landscapes of destination countries. The attention that the Moroccan mass migration episode has received will subside. However this newest occurrence of people movement is not only unlikely to diminish; it may spike much more.
Statistical Overview of the Past Decade (2015–2025)
Data from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) outline the volume and trajectory of these population movements.
Total Migrant Stock: The global population of international migrants reached approximately 304 million, up from roughly 275 million in 2020 and 246 million in 2015. Migrants now account for about 3.7% of the global population.
Concentration in the West: Europe and Northern America remain the primary destinations, jointly hosting 155 million international migrants, or roughly 51% of the global total. The United States alone hosts over 52 million, while major Western European economies (such as Germany, the UK, France, and Spain) accommodate tens of millions more.
Surge in Irregular Migration and Asylum Claims: Forced displacement worldwide escalated sharply over the past decade, reaching 117.8 million people by the end of 2025, driven by protracted conflicts in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia.
Asylum applications in Western countries broke historical records between 2022 and 2025. UNHCR data highlights that global asylum-seekers pending final decisions hovered around 9 million, with a substantial proportion lodging claims after irregular entry into the European Union and the United States.
Unauthorized southern border crossings in the United States routinely hit multi-decade highs during the early-to-mid 2020s, averaging over two million encounters annually before subsequent policy shifts. Similarly, Mediterranean and Balkan irregular entry routes into the EU recorded hundreds of thousands of unauthorized crossings annually.
Projections for the Next Decade (2026–2035)
Demographic, economic, and climatic modeling by international agencies points to compounding pressures for the upcoming decade.
Widening Demographic and Economic Asymmetries: Sub-Saharan Africa and parts of South Asia, especially India and Pakistan, are experiencing rapid youth population growth, while Western nations face accelerating workforce aging and shrinking domestic labor pools. According to UN population projections, the global South will supply virtually all net additions to the global working-age population through 2035.
Climate-Induced Displacement: The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) and climate security models project that environmental degradation, water scarcity, and extreme weather events in developing regions will displace tens of millions internally, a fraction of whom will cross international borders toward Western states.
Institutional and Policy Convergence Toward Deterrence: Given fiscal and political strains, destination countries are projected to implement stricter border enforcement, externalized asylum processing centers, and bilateral containment pacts with transit countries through the mid-2030s. Consequently, irregular migration will likely shift toward riskier, more subterranean pathways unless legal, especially labor frameworks, are drastically restructured.
Impact on Western National Politics
The intersection of legal and irregular migration has increasingly transformed from a socioeconomic policy issue intruding into the central axis of Western electoral politics.
Polarization and the Rise of The Right: Perceptions of uncontrolled borders and overburdened municipal social services have fueled the electoral fortunes of right-wing and nationalist political parties across Europe (e.g., in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain) and the Americas. Immigration control has frequently eclipsed traditional economic debates, redefining traditional party alliances.
Erosion of Center-Left Consensus: Mainstream center-left parties, historically more accommodating on migration, have faced severe political costs, prompting a widespread bipartisan shift toward stricter border management, accelerated deportations, and tighter caps on asylum eligibility across traditional Western democracies.
Strain on Public Infrastructure and Social Cohesion: Rapid influxes into major urban centers have created acute pressures on public school systems, low-cost housing markets, and universal healthcare networks (such as Europe's public health systems and North American local governments). This has intensified domestic debates regarding social integration, cultural assimilation, and national identity.
Foreign Policy and Development Aid Subordination: Western foreign policies toward developing countries are increasingly subordinated to migration management. Aid disbursements, trade preferences, and diplomatic cooperation are routinely leveraged to compel developing nations of origin and transit to stem irregular outflows.
The Visible Hand Of Recent History
The omission of Western colonial and post colonial foreign interventions’ systemic role in global mainstream migration points to a fundamental blind spot in how Western media and policy circles frame border and migration crises and are dealing with them. By treating mass migration primarily as a localized law-enforcement problem or a sudden failure of border management, conventional coverage detaches the phenomenon from its structural and historical roots.
The flow of migrants from developing countries is partially explained by historical colonial ties and more recent geopolitical conflict dynamics precipitated by the world order managed by Western powers.
Colonial labor corridors: Historical administrative links established by European powers heavily shaped early migration tracks, dictating why Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Pacific historically fed labor streams into countries including Britain, France, the Netherlands, and Belgium.
Post-colonial transitions: Modern mobility patterns - legal and illegal - are deeply tied to the "legacy of empire” which continues to shape its magnitude and direction, especially related to South Asian and Africa countries.
The Vacuum of Regime Change: The destabilization or violent overthrow of sovereign governments across Asia, Africa and the Middle East—whether through direct military intervention, proxy warfare, or extensive covert operations—dismantled the state apparatuses that previously acted as internal anchors of stability and regional security buffers. The wars that the U.S. launched after World War II in Southeast Asia created a massive regional refugee crisis, uprooting more than 3 million people between 1975 and 1995. Over 2.5 million of these individuals are estimated to have resettled globally, with more than 1 million in the U.S.
According to comprehensive data compiled by Brown University's Costs of War Project, the post-9/11 wars launched or participated in by the United States have forcibly displaced at least 38 million people. This total represents the largest displacement wave of any conflict since 1900, with the sole exception of World War II.
Destruction of Local, National and Regional Livelihoods: Economic blockades, sanctions, and protracted conflicts engineered or heavily backed by Western powers have degraded local economies, destroyed critical civilian infrastructure, and eliminated sustainable livelihoods, turning viable societies into zones of chronic insecurity and compounding the drivers of flight.
Conclusion
In the foreseeable future, Western nations will increasingly rely on bilateral agreements and financial incentives to compensate for the imprint of their colonial and post colonial dominance.
This, they hope, will shift the pressure points of a continental or global crisis onto specific geopolitical fault lines, weaponizing migration flows as tools of regional leverage and statecraft rather than addressing the root causes generated by the latest round of interventionist foreign policies and other demographic and economic pressure forces.
In the case of Africa, as with the rest of the developing world, ultimately it will be the independent and sustainable development of the migrant exporting countries that can make a difference to irregular migratory movement.
Europe’s and the European Union’s assistance on this has been far from positive and a miniscule of that necessary to make up for its rapacious record in Africa.
本文观点，不代表《东方日报》立场。
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