随著伊朗坚持要开通被美国封锁的霍尔木兹海峡港口，全球各界利益相关者与决策者日益担忧伊朗战争所带来的冲击。美国封锁旨在迫使伊朗接受以美国条件为基础的和平协议。
油价与能源价格飙升、供应链中断，以及随之而来的连锁反应与结构性经济冲击，正在制造全球性“滞胀”风险。联合国警告，这种局面可能使超过3000万人陷入贫困，而贫困国家，尤其是撒哈拉以南非洲与亚洲国家，将首当其冲，承受食品与燃料成本飙升的冲击。
东盟国家冲击
东盟地区作为全球较为发达的区域之一，也未能幸免。
菲律宾受冲击最为严重。该国于3月24日成为全球首个宣布进入国家紧急状态的国家。几乎所有交通与制造业都依赖进口石油。更令人担忧的是，约250万菲律宾人在海湾地区工作，他们每年汇回约150亿美元／595亿令吉，支撑著国内数百万家庭的生计。
越南同样遭受严重打击，尽管没有外汇汇款方面的担忧。该国能源储备仅约20天，为区域最低，已有报导指该国交通、物流与工业领域面对著严重冲击。能源价格震荡正推动通胀从2.5%上升至4%，若冲突持续，甚至可能超过5%。
泰国在新任首相阿努廷政府上台后原本寄望经济反弹，但战争令这一希望大受打击。该国能源储备约有60天或更少，政府已允许公务员居家办公。同时，旅游业与出口遭受显著负面打击，同时外国投资者在3月时纷纷撤离，抛售该国股票与债券。
柬埔寨则是完全依赖进口石油。尽管燃料价格处在高位，政府仍通过补贴来缓解民众压力。运输成本的大幅上升，尤其打击了旅游业与成衣出口这两大经济支柱。
在缅甸，军政府实施了轮流出行制度，并迫使这个过去依赖伊朗石油的国家，转向从俄罗斯与中国寻找替代能源供应。
印尼曾是重要石油出口国与石油输出国组织成员，也是亚太前三大生产国之一，如今已成为石油进口国。国内石油产量不足消费量的40%，使其经济与区域其他国家一样暴露在战争冲击之下。尽管政府维持油价与燃料价格不变，但这对国家财政造成巨大压力。
寮国作为内陆国家，美伊战争已触发当地经济危机。3月整体通胀率升至9.7%。政府采取的缓解措施包括实行每周三天上课制，以减少燃料消耗。
与缅甸同列东盟最贫穷国家之一的东帝汶，其贫困人口直接受到食品与燃料成本推动型通胀的冲击。不过，该国拥有规模庞大的石油基金（超过180亿美元／714亿令吉），在一定程度上缓冲了财政冲击。
新加坡与汶莱这两个东盟最富裕国家，受到的影响相对较小。
在马来西亚，中低收入群体已开始感受到燃料与能源价格上涨的压力。如果战争持续3至6个月以上，且油价突破每桶110美元，可能导致财政赤字扩大与经济增长放缓。
战争若持续，将带来什么后果
一、经济压力：对东盟出口发展模式的挑战
增长放缓与衰退风险：战争正在拖累区域GDP增长。若冲突长期化，东盟经济增长可能降至自2022年以来最低水平。惠誉评级指出，若冲突持续三个月，油价可能飙升至每桶128美元／507令吉，从而显著提高主权信用风险。
供应链中断：成本上升与航线改道不仅推高工业与农业物流成本，还可能削弱与全球市场的联系，甚至导致区域生产网络碎片化。
金融市场不稳定：投资者信心受到打击。自战争爆发以来，本区域股市累计蒸发至少2169亿美元／8604亿令吉的市值。
二、地缘政治压力：中立原则面临考验
东盟中立受考验：冲突对东盟长期坚持的中立原则形成压力。尽管整体上东盟呼吁缓和战争，但成员国反应不一：马来西亚、印尼与汶莱谴责美国军事攻击，新加坡则拒绝与伊朗谈判并采取相对中立立场，这种差异暴露出东盟内部裂痕。
南海议题变化：战争分散了区域对南海问题的关注。首次超过51.9%的东南亚意见领袖将美国全球领导力视为首要地缘政治担忧。
缺乏协商机制：美国在未与主要亚洲盟友或东盟伙伴协商的情况下发动军事攻击，引发区域强烈不满。
结论
美国同时发动的两场战争——关税战与伊朗战争——已显著削弱其在亚洲与东盟地区的地位。
在关税层面，美国对越南、泰国与马来西亚等关键伙伴征收约19%至24%的关税，这动摇了东盟国家的信心，并加剧了依赖供应链经济体的不确定性。相比之下，中国持续向东盟提供稳定的经济关系，并保持本地区最大贸易伙伴地位。
在伊朗战争问题上，即使未来达成和平协议，这场冲突所造成的信任危机与原则危机仍将长期存在。原因在于，这场战争已经对美国在东盟的穆斯林为主国家乃至全球的声誉造成“信誉性损伤”。
东盟区域的政商领袖普遍谴责美国与以色列，认为两国在国际法运用上存在“双重标准”。这场战争可能使美国作为“基于规则的领导者”的道德权威与地缘政治地位，遭受难以挽回的削弱。
林德宜《伊朗战争如何冲击东盟经济》原文：How Iran War Has Hit ASEAN Economies
As Iran insists on the opening of its ports closed by the United State's blockade of the Straits of Hormutz aimed at pressuring it to accept a peace agreement based on American terms, there is a rising concern among stakeholders and players around the world of the damaging impact of the Iran war.
Elevated oil and energy prices, the disruption of supply chains and ensuing ripple and structural economic shocks is creating a risk of global "stagflation" which the United Nations warns could push over 30 million people into poverty, with poor countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia, facing the brunt of soaring food and fuel costs.
ASEAN Countries Impacted:
The ASEAN region, one of the world's more developed regions, has not been immune.
The Philippines has come off worst. It was the first country in the world to declare a national emergency on March 24. Almost all the nation′s transport and manufacturing is dependent on imported oil. More worrying is that 2.5 million Filipinos work in the Gulf region and their earnings of US $15 billion support millions of households back home.
Vietnam has been similarly hard hit though without the external remittance concern. With the lowest reserves of 20 days in the region, it has reported severe impact on its transport, logistic and industrial sectors. The energy shock is pushing inflation to rise from 2.5% to 4%, and above 5% in a protracted conflict.
Thailand′s hopes of an economic turnaround with the recent election of Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakil’s government have taken a big hit. With reserves of 60 days or less, it has permitted civil servants to work from home. Meanwhile the negative impact on tourism and exports has risen sharply whilst foreign investors have exited the country, selling off equities and bonds in March.
Cambodia imports all its oil. Although fuel prices have peaked the government has intervened with subsidies to manage consumer pressure. The significant transportation cost increases have especially impacted the tourism sector and garments exports, two key drivers of the economy.
In Myanmar, the junta government has implemented alternative driving days and has forced the nation previously dependent on Iranian oil to look for alternative energy supplies from Russia and China.
Once a major oil exporter and OPEC member and still a top three producer in the Asia Pacific region, Indonesia is now a net oil importer. With domestic oil production less than 40 per cent of consumption, Indonesia has seen its economy exposed to war shocks like the rest of the region. Although the government has maintained oil and fuel prices at current levels, this is placing immense pressure on the national budget.
In Laos, a landlocked country, the war has triggered an economic crisis driven with headline inflation rising to 9.7% in March. Amongst mitigation measures undertaken are a 3 day school week to reduce fuel consumption.
Ranked together with Myanmar as the poorest Asean countries, Tumor Leste’s poor have been directly affected by cost-push inflation for food and fuel. However, the country has a substantial Petroleum Fund (over $18 billion) which is providing a significant cushion against fiscal shock.
Singapore and Brunel, the 2 richest ASEAN countries, have been relatively unaffected.
In Malaysia the lower and middle class is starting to feel the impact of higher fuel and energy prices If the war continues beyond 3-6 months, and oil prices surpass $110/barrel, it could lead to significant fiscal deficits and reduced economic growth.
What War Prolongation Will Lead To
Economic Stress: Challenge To ASEAN Export Model of Development
● Slower Growth & Recession Risks: The war is dragging down regional GDP. A prolonged conflict could push growth in ASEAN to its weakest level since 2022. Fitch Ratings has noted a severe three-month conflict could spike oil prices to $128 per barrel, posing high credit risks for sovereigns.
● Supply Chain Disruption: Higher costs and rerouted shipping not only increase logistics expenses for industry and agricultural production. These disruptions threaten to sever ties with global markets and fragment regional production networks.
● Financial Market Instability: Investor confidence has been shaken. Markets across the region have collectively lost at least $216.9 billion since the war began.
Geopolitical Strains: Neutrality Under Pressure
● Testing ASEAN's Neutrality: The conflict has strained ASEAN's principle of neutrality. While the bloc officially calls for de-escalation, members' responses diverge. Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei have condemned the strikes, while Singapore has refused to negotiate with Iran and assumed a neutral position, exposing internal fractures.
● South China Sea Dynamics: The war has distracted from concerns in the region. For the first time, more than 51.9% of Southeast Asian opinion leaders identify US global leadership as their top geopolitical worry.
● Lack of Consultation: There is significant regional fury over the fact that the US initiated strikes without consulting major Asian allies or ASEAN partners.
Conclusion
The two wars the US has initiated - tariff and Iran - have considerably weakened American standing in the region and Asia.
On the tariff front, the US trade war has imposed average tariffs on key partners like Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia set around 19-24% after negotiations. These tariffs have shaken ASEAN's confidence and resulted in uncertainty that threatens the supply chains their economies rely on. In contrast, China continues to offer ASEAN a stable economic relationship and remains the region's largest trading partner.
With the Iran war, we are also seeing a crisis of trust and principles that will continue even if a peace agreement can be negotiated and honored. This is because the conflict has inflicted "reputational damage" on the US not only among ASEAN's Muslim-majority nations but in all countries.
Political and business leaders here have condemned the United States and Israel, perceiving a double standard in their application of international law. This war will see the moral authority and geopolitical standing of the US as a rules-based leader diminish beyond redemption.
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