林德宜：中澳冲突，如何解铃

在当前的中澳冲突中，中国外交部发言人赵立坚表示，中澳关系的恶化根源是“澳洲屡次的错误行径和言论……以及其挑衅和对抗的行动”，因此“解铃还须系铃人”。本文，我将提出澳洲和其他西方国家可以如何解开这纠结。

澳洲人和其他西方人可能已忘记，但中国人从未忘记，中国近来受到西方列强侵略和压迫的历史。这包括了英国、美国、法国、德国和俄罗斯。西方侵华始于19世纪中叶的鸦片战争。

后来，日本也加入西方阵营，试图瓜分中国为殖民地。在西方和日本侵略中，导致了数以百万中国人丧生，遭受苦难者更是无数。

从历史中学习

今天，美国及其盟国似乎正重新打压中国，以保持西方霹权的地位。但是，他们面对的是一个完全不同的中国。

首先，中国今非昔比，其不是当年那个不发达或分裂的中国。1949年10月1日中国共产党上台后，其不仅恢复了国家声誉，更创造了一个社会经济奇迹，使一个原本无法自给自足的国家，在短短几十年之内变成了一个经济强国。

中国至今超过7亿的人口摆脱了贫困。2000年，其中产阶级仅占人口的3％。到了2018年，这数字攀升至人口的一半以上，超过7亿人。如此庞大的中产阶层，是世界前所未有的。中国成了全球经济增长的最大引擎。在未来10年，其将取代美国成为世界上最大经济体。

其次，中国国家主席习近平（自毛泽东以来最有权势的中国领导人）誓言要完成中国的伟大复兴，重登全球大国地位。

在西方标准，中国是专制政权，但习近平和共产党是得到了大多数中国人认同的。中国也明确表示，未来的发展，是依照和平路线和具有中国特色的社会主义。这与西方自由主义或威权资本主义大不相同。

第三，与中国和平崛起形成鲜明对比的是，美国、澳洲、纽西兰和加拿大等西方国家的主导下，本土的原住民面对著消亡。美国和盟国也在没有合理自卫理由下，在拉丁美洲、非洲、东南亚、中东和中亚国家持续发起战争。

西方应该赞赏中国

现实是，中国已是全球大国。但其并没有耀武扬威，反而一直扮演著负责任的世界公民。中国遵守全球规则和秩序，也是拥护世界贸易组织，世界卫生组织和联合国安理会的成员国。其也是《巴黎气候协定》等全球协定的签署国，并参与维持和平和人道主义行动。在气候变化，反恐，全球裁军和防核扩散，以及对穷国发展援助等问题上，中国一直是模范国际公民，在寻求有效解决区域和全球问题方面，也发挥建设性和进步的作用。澳洲应该赞赏中国的和平发展，以及负责任和务实的外交政策。

中国善用其资源和软实力的最新例子，就是“一带一路”计划。不过，西方媒体广泛非议这雄心勃勃计划，即通过陆路和海上网络沿著六个走廊将亚洲与非洲和欧洲连接起来，以期加强区域一体化，增加贸易并刺激经济增长。

毫无疑问，这项计划将加强北京的经济领导地位。许多西方分析家通过地缘政治视角，将此解读为北京试图对邻国施加政治影响力的尝试。但是，另一个遭忽略的动机是，“一带一路”倡议背后的经济驱动力，是要推动中国产业提升和技术与能源出口。其最终不是要重塑中国的主导或霸权，而是为参与国家一起打造双赢。

美国对世界和全球经济的主导将终结或即将结束。澳洲与其扮演特朗普在亚太区的“马前卒”，不如承认中国国际宏愿的合法性和必然性。这意味著澳洲要接受中国对主权的关注，这包括香港、新疆，甚至有争议的台湾在内。同时，也不应阻挠中国旨在保护南中国海专属经济区的行动。也许澳洲最严重的反华举动是最近游说日本、印度和其他亚洲国家，组织更大的反华军事和经济结盟。

如今，随著特朗普下台，而持有强烈反中外交政策立场的国务卿蓬佩奥也会离去，澳洲总理莫里森也应该放弃“扩音器外交”政策。

中国有句话说：“要了解一个人，应该看其言行，”这是化解冲突的第一步，如果莫里森和澳洲继续在国内和国际上妖魔化中国，其将是最大的输家。

是的，澳洲是一个幸运的国家。但是，切勿不自量力或得寸进尺。

《中澳冲突，如何解铃》（¨If you make China the enemy, China will be the enemy〃 - The Australia-China Conflict *Part 2）原文：

In the current Australia-China conflict, China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian has indicated
that China is not interested in compromise because the “crux of the deteriorating bilateral ties” is
“Australia’s repeated wrong acts and remarks…as well as its provocative and confrontational actions.”
He has argued that “Whoever hung the bell [on the tiger’s neck] must untie it, meaning that those who have caused problems should be the ones to solve problems.

In this article, I will explain how Australia and other Western nations can work towards untying the bell
around their neck.

Learn from Recent History

Australians and other Westerners may have forgotten - but the Chinese have never forgotten - of the recent history when China was invaded and exploited by Western foreign powers. These powers included Britain, the US, France, Germany and Russia. This period of Western aggression against China began from the Opium war period in the mid 19 century. Western powers were later joined by Japan in seeking to carve up China to become their colony. Millions of Chinese were killed and many more suffered from the century of western and Japanese aggression that followed.

Today the US and its allies appear to be renewing attempts to bring down China in the bid to continue western supremacy. However it is a completely different China that they are dealing with.

Firstly it is not an undeveloped or disunited China that is on the present world stage. When the Chinese Communist Party came to power on 1 October 1949, it not only restored the country’s honour. The party has overseen a socio-economic miracle which has taken a country that could not feed itself and turned it into an economic powerhouse within a few decades.

More than half a billion people have been lifted out of poverty. In 2000, China's middle class amounted to just three percent of its population. By 2018, this number had climbed to over half of the population, constituting more than 700 million persons. The world has never seen anything like it. China is now the biggest engine of global economic growth. By the end of the decade it will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy.

Secondly President Xi Jinping — the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao — has vowed to complete the great rejuvenation of China and to restore it to the apex of global power. Although an authoritarian leader by western standards, Xi and the Communist party enjoy the popular support of the great majority of the Chinese population. They have made it clear that the road for future Chinese development is through peaceful socialism with Chinese characteristics. This will be quite different from Western liberalism or authoritarian capitalism.

Thirdly, in contrast to the rise of China which has been peaceful and within its own borders, the dominance of western nations such as the United States, Australia, New Zealand and Canada, has seen the decimation of their native and other indigenous communities. The US and allied nations have also been engaged in continuous wars without the justification of self defence against countries in Latin America, Africa, South East Asia, the Middle East and Central Asia, The West Should Appreciate China.

The reality today is that China by any measure is a global power. Although a global power, China has not thrown its weight around but has been a responsible world citizen. It has joined in a global rules based order and is a supportive member of the World Trade Organisation, the World Health Organisation and the UN’s Security Council. It is a signatory to global compacts like the Paris Climate Accords and engages in peacekeeping and humanitarian operations. On issues like climate change, counter terrorism, nucleur and arms control and development assistance to poor countries, China has been a model international citizen playing a constructive and progressive role in finding effective solutions to regional and global issues. Australia should applaud and appreciate China’s peaceful development and responsible and pragmatic foreign policy.

The latest example of China using its resources and soft power is the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Widely condemned by the Western media, it is an ambitious programme to connect Asia with Africa and Europe via land and maritime networks along six corridors with the aim of improving regional integration, increasing trade and stimulating economic growth.

There is no doubt that this ambitious project exercise is also to strengthen Beijing’s economic leadership. Many western analysts focusing on this initiative through a geopolitical lens have interpreted it as Beijing’s attempt to gain political leverage over its neighbours. However, the other motivation not given attention is that the key drivers behind BRI are motivated by China’s economic concerns to upgrade the nation’s industry and to export China’s technological and engineering standards. The ultimate goal is not to impose Chinese dominance or supremacy but to generate win-win outcomes for participating nations.

What Next

US domination of the world and global economy has ended or will soon be ending. Instead of acting as Trump’s deputy sheriff in the Asia Pacific region, Australia needs to acknowledge the legitimacy and inevitability of China’s international aspirations. That means coming to terms with China’s concern with its national boundaries which include Hongkong, Xinjiang and even disputed Taiwan. Also not undermining China’s attempts aimed at protecting its economic lifelines in the South China Sea. Perhaps the most serious of Australia’s anti-China moves are the recent efforts to persuade Japan, India and other Asian countries to join in a larger military and economic front against Beijing.

Now that Trump is no longer President and MIke Pompeo will vacate his virulently anti-China foreign policy position, Prime Minister Scott Morrison should drop the megaphone diplomacy.

There is a Chinese saying that "If you wish to know the mind of a man, listen to his words. This can be a first step back from a conflict in which Morrison and Australia will be the biggest loser if he continues to demonize China at national and international levels.

Yes, Australia is a lucky country. However it should not punch above its weight or push its luck.

• 林德宜