林德宜：东盟能否让美中两国携手应对全球挑战

在之前的一篇文章中〈东盟如何在美中之间立足〉，我警告说，如果美国和中国把印度太平洋和南海地区作为新冷战的主要战场，东盟将夹在美中两国之间而遭殃。

我们还须注意，美国视中国为敌的战略，也会加剧本区域军备和军事化竞赛的不利后果。最可怕的结果可能是爆发一场影响全人类的核战浩劫。

尽管中国被美国视为誓要打倒的对手，而处于守势，但为了维护本身利益，中国也避免对美国进行反击，并努力在中美之间出现争议领域取得和平友好的结果。

出乎意料的是，最近一项新闻报导，核武器五大国罕见反战声明，提供了一线希望，即超级大国之间的灾难性核战争不会像许多人担心的那样“指日可待”。

在1月3日，联合国安理会五个常任理事国中、法、俄、英、美罕见的联合声明确认：

●核战争不能带来胜利，也决不能开打
●核武器——只要一日存在——就只应用于防御目的、威慑侵略和防止战争
●维护和遵守双边和多边关于核武器不扩散、裁军和军备控制协议和承诺的重要性
●继续寻求双边和多边外交途径，以避免军事对抗，加强稳定和可预测性，增进相互了解和信任，防止不利且危及各方的军备竞赛。

除了重申五国在核问题上的协议外，该声明的意义还在于，五个签署国都表明他们希望与“所有国家”合作，并决心“在相互尊重和承认彼此安全利益的情况下进行建设性对话”。这是对多极全球体系的明确承认，也是对美国和西方主导和霸权倡导者所提出的单极或两极化世界观的否定。

东盟应跟进倡导联合国安理会开启的契机，进一步推动其对“澳英美三方安全联盟”（AUKUS）的反对，并重申成员国的反核立场。这一步骤是必要的，以确保东南亚国家不会卷入或妥协于美国领导的反华运动中。

对东盟来说，一个更艰难的选项，但可能更有益于本地区的和平与安全事宜，就是让东盟在两个超级大国之间的冲突中扮演裁判者或公正调解人的角色。

“修昔底德陷阱”被用来描述当新兴大国威胁到现有大国地位时，一场战争难免的趋势，这显然正在发生。除了“修昔底德陷阱”外，我们也要避免两个超级大国陷入所谓的“丘吉尔陷阱”危险中。这个词是指冷战时期，美国和苏联之间发生的长期对抗，这种对抗也卷入了中小型国家，最终对双方阵营，包括两个大国，都造成了巨大的伤害。

疫情和气候变化挑战

东盟成员也应尽可能追求一种更强有力的不结盟概念，这概念是超越不参与两大国军事事务的传统政策。而是如何将一个全面的不结盟概念纳入全球关系并将其付诸实施，以使东盟及其小国能够在这个多极世界中发挥适度的影响力，这是一项可能显得过于雄心勃勃的目标。但却是东盟未来规划中值得考虑的事项。

东盟除了放眼于在全球政治领域发挥影响力之外，也应利用其影响力游说中国和美国更紧密地合作，以应对政治之外许多紧迫的区域和全球挑战。这些社会经济和环境的挑战，对区域和全球和平与安全的威胁，并不逊色于全球军备竞赛和军事化带来的威胁，甚至有过之而无不及。

在贫穷的国家中，除了要解决长期面对著的挑战：如何缓解水和粮食短缺、减少贫困和不平等，以及确保可持续发展等课题之外，新冠疫情的冲击，也可能使过去十年取得的发展成果化为乌有。

在全球层面，世界资源研究所（World Resources Institute）指出，为减少贫困、发展经济和保护自然生态，人类必须解决的7项挑战。这些挑战涉及了食物安全、维护森林、水、能源、可持续城市发展、气候和海洋。这些因素不仅密不可分，而且比以往任何时候都面临更大的风险，因为世界上没有国家能做好准备或应对，快速且无法控制的气候变化带来的影响。

今天，新冠疫情以及环境和气候变化对全球经济、人们生计、健康和整体发展造成的严重伤害程度从未如此明显。自过去150年左右有数据记录以来，海洋上升、冰层和冰川融化、降雪和降雨模式的变化，以及陆地气温升高的指标，都已达到历史最高水平。在马来西亚，气候变化和地球变暖的影响，人们已可在最近的洪水中猛烈感受到。

即使在现有情况下，若美国和中国能在全球利益课题上，展现有效的合作和可持续性的管理，并把他们掌握的科学和知识资源，以及金融影响力发挥出来，这将有助于为世界争取时间，缓解疫情、气候变化和环境的危机。东盟应该发挥催化作用，至少在本区实现这一目标。

林德宜《东盟能否让美中两国携手应对全球挑战》原文：Can ASEAN Bring the US and China Together To Meet Global Challenges

In an earlier article, we warned about the danger of ASEAN being sandwiched between the United States and China in the event of a new cold war that has the Indo Pacific and South China Sea regions as its main battle front.

It was also noted that the US strategy in targeting China as an enemy can only bring about adverse consequences in the form of an intensified arms and militarization race. The most pessimistic outcome could be a nuclear holocaust which will affect all humanity. 

Although put on the defensive by the United States identification as a rival to be brought down, it is in the interest of China to refrain from retaliation against the US and to work towards a peaceful and amicable outcome in the areas of contestation that have emerged between them.

Quite unexpectedly, news has recently emerged of an agreement that provides some glimmer of hope that a disastrous nuclear war between the superpowers is not around the corner as many have feared.

On 3 January, a rare joint statement by the five permanent members of the UN Security Council consisting China, France, Russia, UK and US affirmed 

●A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought
●Nuclear weapons - for as long as they exist - should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression and prevent war
●The importance of preserving and complying with bilateral and multilateral non-proliferation, disarmament, and arms control agreements and commitments
●The intention to continue seeking bilateral and multilateral diplomatic approaches to avoid military confrontations, strengthen stability and predictability, increase mutual understanding and confidence, and prevent an arms race that would benefit none and endanger all. 

Besides reaffirmation of the grouping’s agreement on the nuclear issue, the statement is significant in that the five signatories point to their desire to work with “all states” and their resolution “to pursue constructive dialogue with mutual respect and acknowledgment of each other’s security interests and concerns”. This is a clear recognition of the multipolar global system and a repudiation of the uni- or bipolar world posited by advocates of US and western dominance and hegemony. 

ASEAN should follow up on this important opening provided by the United Nations security council to advance further its opposition to AUKUS and to reiterate the anti-nuclear position of the member countries. This step is necessary to ensure that Southeast Asian nations do not become embroiled or compromised in the US led campaign against China.

A more difficult option for ASEAN to pursue, but one potentially more beneficial to the cause of peace and security in the region, is for the Association to play a role as a referee or as an honest broker in the conflict between the two superpowers.

The scenario of the ‘Thucydides Trap’ situation has been used to describe the tendency towards war when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as is clearly happening now. In addition to the ‘Thucydides Trap’, there is also the danger of the two superpowers falling into what is known as the ‘Churchill Trap’. This term refers to the long term confrontation that took place between the US and the USSR which also drew in small and medium sized countries and inflicted enormous damage to all participant nations, including the two contesting powers. 

Possibilities also exist for the pursuit by the Association members of a stronger concept of non-alignment that can go beyond the traditional policy of nonparticipation in the military affairs of a bipolar world. How to insert and operationalize a comprehensive concept of non-alignment into global relations so that the Association with its small nations can exert a moderating influence in our multipolar world is a mission that may appear over-ambitious. But it is one worthy of consideration in ASEAN’s future planning. 

Pandemic and Climate Change Challenges

Looking even further beyond the field of global politics, ASEAN should use its influence to lobby China and the United States to work more closely to address the many urgent regional and global challenges outside the political arena. These socio-economic and environmental challenges threaten regional and global peace and security just as much or even more than the arms race and militarization.

Among poorer countries, in addition to the long standing challenge of mitigating water and food shortages, reducing poverty and inequality, and helping ensure  sustainable development, the pandemic impact threatens to push back whatever development gains have been made during the past decade.  

At the global level, the World Resources Institute has identified 7 challenges that must be addressed to reduce poverty, grow economies and protect natural systems. These are food, forests, water, energy, cities, climate and the ocean. These challenges are not only inextricably linked but they are at greater risk than ever because of the impact of rapid and uncontrollable climate change which every country in the world is unprepared for or is inadequately dealing with.  

Today the severity of the damage to economies, livelihoods, health and overall development brought about by the pandemic and environmental and climate changes has never been so clear. Indicators of rising oceans, declining ice levels, shifts in snow and rainfall patterns, melting glaciers, and increased land air temperatures have reached an all time high since data trends were recorded during the past 150 years or so.  In Malaysia the impact of climate change and a warming Earth has been painfully brought home by the ferocity of recent floods.. 

Even at this late hour, US and China cooperation in the effective and sustainable management of our global commons and the deployment of their pooled scientific and knowledge resources, and financial clout can help to buy time for the world to mitigate the pandemic, climate change and environmental crisis. ASEAN should play a catalytic role in making this happen at least in this part of the world. 

• 林德宜