在两周前的〈另一个即将失败的大马计划（上）〉文里，我已指出政府应关注的三个关键问题，采取一套完全不同的政策，以使第12大马计划实现马来西亚成为高收入，具有包容性和可持续增长的国家目标。这些包括，在公司股权、官联公司和私人领域的改革，以及落实新经济的模式。
不幸的是，最近公布的2022年财案——第十二大马计划的起点——不仅缺少任何新举措。更糟糕的是，这只是新经济政策（NEP）的翻版。
50年前，513种族暴力冲突事件后，诞生了倾马来人的扶贫政策——新经济政策。这政策于1990年到期。新经济政策不仅通过广泛对马来社会偏颇的社会经济干预措施，扭曲了经济发展长达50年。其还使财富创造上，偏向于马来人为主的精英阶层，当然也包括非马来人。这可以从近日揭密的潘多拉文件中显示出来。这些文件揭露了当今世界各国现任和前任政治和商业领袖的离岸账户，其中包括来自马来西亚的。
对马来西亚而言，在经济高增长时期，掩蔽了延续新经济政策下依据肤色来分配财富的措施。但在过去十年经济增长放缓的年代，这课题就日益突显。
毫不惊讶，第十二大马计划没有改善衡量经济不平等的基尼（GINI）指数。虽然国人平均月收入从2016年到2019年都有所增加，但整体基尼指数，也从0.399增加到0.407，表明收入不平等正在扩大。这也使马来西亚的基尼指数排名处于亚洲不平等程度最高的。
我们需要解决的问题是，如何改善底层民众（B20）或收入最低的20％人口之收入占比，他们仅占国民总收入的5.9％，而最顶层的10％（T10）的份额却是30.7％。第十二大马计划没有提出任何扭转此情况的措施。
马来西亚的相对贫困率也从2016年的15.6％上升到2019年的17％，而且趋势还在发展中。政府的经济统计数据遭到操纵，扭曲了我们对现实的理解。第十二大马计划几乎也没有提及如何改善因新冠疫情的影响，而拖延了的经济复苏。
因此，我们可以预期2022年的经济状况会更糟。
需要新方向
政府需要从财富和股权再分配转向财富创造。这需要摒弃创造百万富翁的做法，因为这只会培养出一个寻租（rent-seeking）阶级的寡头。这也意味著通过社会安全网，让社会充满活力，为所有人创造就业和经济机会，而不是通过政府干预和监管促进相关精英的经济寻租机会和更亲马来人的政策。
随著贫困和失业的增加，宏观政策需要有效的微观经济举措。这需要制定和实施有效的计划。其中优先的领域，就是扩大底层40%人群的收入；协助中小企业，尤其新冠疫情前，中小企业就雇用了48.9％的劳动力或700万人；提供安全网援助；在贫困人口居住的地方实施有针对性的区域和城市发展。
提升B40阶层收入的其中一项关键策略就是增加工资，这不只可减少贫困也可缩小收入不平等。这或许就是政策中最具挑战性的。
在劳动力市场的底部，估计有200万名移工，他们对工资增长施加了下行压力。此外，极差甚至危险的工作环境，也表明我们未能制定和执行职场安全标准。
接下来的问题是文化。今天移工从事的工作，就是年轻一代不愿从事的。本地雇主抱怨本地员工的出勤率和生产力低下。因此，我们必须关注雇用了国内近一半劳动力的中小企业。
专注于中小企业
第十二大马计划和明年的财案未能了解国内115万中小企业面临的最关键问题。中小企业面临的主要问题包括，流动性问题、获取适当技术、无法发展相关技能，以及缺乏收集市场信息和赢得客户的能力。政府援助中小企业的计划，往往局限于种族意识形态，而且只有一小部分受惠。
中小企业也发现要获得援助，须符合各种苛刻条件，而银行对中小企业贷款就施加了严格的条件，如需抵押品、支持文件和过去的业绩记录。 我们需要一个彻底改变，重新对中小企业金融、管理、营销和技术技能的认识。
工业4.0和数码化是很好的，一旦中小企业发展到关键的健康水平，他们就会熟练掌握并准备扩张。不幸的是，对于马来西亚的大多数中小企业来说，他们还没有准备好。
疫情下长期的封锁对中小企业造成了巨大的伤害，去年有超过3万家中小企业倒闭，30％的零售店也因此消失。立即减税是必要的，以帮助业主降低租金和租赁成本，进而让中小企业生存。
在下一期文章，我将重点讨论财案的影响，以及其在这个关键时期，将如何让马来西亚进一步的失败。
林德宜《 另一个即将失败的大马计划（下）──2022年财案》原文：Budget 22: Leading to Another Failing Malaysia Plan
In the first of a two part assessment, I had called the attention of the government to three key issues that necessitate an entirely different set of policy initiatives if the 12th Malaysia Plan (MP) is to meet its goals of making Malaysia a high-income country with inclusive and sustainable growth. These were reforms in corporate equity, GLCs and private sector, and implementation of the New Economic Model.
Unfortunately the recently unveiled budget 2022 - the starting point for the 12MP - is not only missing any new initiatives. Even worse, it is just a clone of the New Economic Policy (NEP).
50 years ago the May 69 racial violence resulted in a pro Malay affirmative action plan which was to end in 1990. The NEP not only distorted the economy for five decades through a wide range of socio-economic intervention in favour of the Malay community. It also skewed wealth creation towards an elite mainly Malay group but also including non-Malays. This can be seen in the revelations of the Pandora Papers. These papers expose the offshore accounts of current and former political and business leaders, including many from Malaysia.
For Malaysia, the continuation of the NEP focus on the racial redistribution of wealth was well hidden during the high GDP growth years. But it has become much more apparent during the slower growth rates of the past decade.
It is not surprising that the 12MP offers no improvement in the GINI index, the measure of economic inequality. While mean monthly income has increased from 2016 to 2019, the overall GINI coefficient has actually increased from 0.399 to 0.407, pointing to a widening of income inequality. This is at a time when Malaysia’s GINI ranking is at the top of Asian inequality.
The issue that needs to be addressed is that the share of the so-called B20, or bottom 20 percent of Malaysia’s income earners, comes to only 5.9 percent of national income, while the T10 (or top 10 percent) share is 30.7 percent of national income. The plan offers nothing to reverse this situation.
The incidence of relative poverty in Malaysia has increased from 15.6 percent in 2016 to 17 percent in 2019, and is continuing to increase. Government economic statistics are manipulated and are distorting our understanding of what is happening on the ground. Economic recovery and relief are being delayed by the continuing pandemic impact with little contained within RM12 to assist.
Thus, we can expect the economy to go into 2022 much worse off.
New Direction Needed
The nation needs to move from wealth and equity redistribution to wealth creation. This requires doing away with creating millionaires, which has created a rent-seeking class of oligarchs. It also means protecting the buoyancy of households through a safety net and creating employment and economic opportunity for all rather than promoting economic rent-seeking opportunities for the connected elite and more pro-Malay policies through government intervention and regulation.
With poverty and unemployment increasing, macro policy requires effective microeconomic initiatives. This requires developing and implementing effective programs. The priority areas are building income among the bottom 40 percent; assisting SMEs, which employed 48.9 percent of the workforce or 7 million people before the pandemic began; providing safety net assistance; and implementing targeted regional and urban development where the poor reside.
One of the key strategies in building income across the B40 is increasing wages, both to reduce poverty and decrease income inequality. This is perhaps one of the most challenging aspects of policy.
The bottom end of the labor market has an estimated 2 million migrant workers who exert downward pressure on wages. In addition, working conditions are extremely poor and even dangerous, indicating a failure to develop and enforce safety standards
The next problem is cultural. Jobs undertaken by migrant workers are seen by today’s younger generation as undesirable. Local employers complain about the spasmodic attendance and poor productivity of local employees. Attention must be focused upon SMEs which employ almost half of Malaysia’s workforce.
Focus on SMEs
The RM12 document and latest budget fails to identify the most critical issues facing Malaysia’s 1.15 million SMEs today. The major problems SMEs face include liquidity issues, access to appropriate technology, the inability to develop relevant skill sets, and lack of ability to collect market information, and gain customers. Government programs to assist SMEs have played with race and have only reached a small number.
SMES have found the conditions to obtain assistance too difficult, and banks have imposed strict loan conditions, such as collateral, support documentation, and past performance record. There should be a radical shift to teach basic SME finance, management, marketing, and technology skills.
Industry 4.0 and digitization are well and good, once the nation’s SMEs develop a critical level of health, so they are skilled up and ready to expand. Unfortunately for most of Malaysia’s SMEs, they are not ready yet.
Long extended lockdowns have taken a toll on SMEs, with more than 30,000 closing last year, and the loss of 30 percent of retail shops. Immediate tax relief is necessary to assist landlords’ lower rental and leasing costs to occupying SMEs to assist them to survive.
In the next part, I will focus on the major negative aspects of Budget 22 and how it will fail Malaysia during this critical period ahead.
